Touchline, football modelled

football and formula 1, modelled

Every match, modelled. Every call, on the record.

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 BST

Arsenal

v

Leeds United

69%ARSto win · 100,000 simsLEE11%

See the match modelled How it works

public record

The sample is tiny. The ledger is permanent.

Every pre-match call sits beside the result, including the misses when they arrive.

Settled: 14
Exact scores: 2
Right calls: 9

upcoming

Premier League · Matchweek 6

ArsenalvLeeds United

Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 BST · Emirates Stadium

69% ARS20% drawLEE 11%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Aston VillavBrentford

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST · Villa Park

36% AVL25% drawBRE 39%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

ChelseavAFC Bournemouth

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST · Stamford Bridge

53% CHE22% drawBOU 25%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Ipswich TownvFulham

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST · Portman Road

36% IPS26% drawFUL 38%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

SunderlandvBrighton & Hove Albion

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST · Stadium of Light

35% SUN26% drawBHA 39%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Manchester UnitedvTottenham Hotspur

Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 BST · Old Trafford

56% MUN22% drawTOT 22%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Crystal PalacevNottingham Forest

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST · Selhurst Park

37% CRY27% drawNFO 36%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Hull CityvEverton

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST · The MKM Stadium

27% HUL27% drawEVE 46%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

LiverpoolvManchester City

Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 BST · Anfield

36% LIV25% drawMCI 39%

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Coventry CityvNewcastle United

Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 BST · Coventry Building Society Arena

30% COV25% drawNEW 45%

Formula 1 · Round 10 of 23

Belgian Grand Prix

Antonelli held off Leclerc for a sixth win of the season and extended his title lead, after George Russell retired from an early crash.

34.2% Antonellimodel favourite

Formula 1 · Round 11 of 23

Hungarian Grand Prix

Norris converted pole into McLaren's first win of 2026, 15 seconds clear of Verstappen, after Piastri led early and retired with a gearbox failure. Antonelli was third and left for the break 50 points clear.

32.8% Antonellimodel favourite

full time

Premier League · Matchweek 1

ArsenalvCoventry City

3–0FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

78% ARS15% drawCOV 7%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Hull CityvManchester United

2–0FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

17% HUL22% drawMUN 61%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

EvertonvCrystal Palace

2–0FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

44% EVE28% drawCRY 28%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Ipswich TownvSunderland

2–1FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

34% IPS29% drawSUN 37%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Nottingham ForestvLeeds United

0–1FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

42% NFO28% drawLEE 30%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

BrentfordvTottenham Hotspur

3–0FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

41% BRE26% drawTOT 33%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Brighton & Hove AlbionvAston Villa

4–0FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

39% BHA27% drawAVL 34%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Manchester CityvAFC Bournemouth

2–1FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

63% MCI19% drawBOU 18%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Newcastle UnitedvLiverpool

2–2FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

32% NEW24% drawLIV 44%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

FulhamvChelsea

2–3FT

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

33% FUL27% drawCHE 40%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Final

SpainvArgentina

1–0FT

The model's verdict was Spain 1–0, the exact score, sealed in extra time.

55.5% ESPto lift the trophyARG 44.5%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-final

EnglandvArgentina

1–2FT

The model's verdict was Argentina 2–1, the exact score.

47% ENGto reach the finalARG 53%

competitions

World Cup 20262026

2 fixtures modelled

2 races modelled

Premier League2026/27

20 fixtures modelled

Bundesliga2026/27

Champions League2026/27

from the journal

Cover illustration for The two Euro 2028 hosts who cannot miss

Modelling27 July 2026 · 8 min read

The two Euro 2028 hosts who cannot miss

Cover illustration for Why we will not call Euro 2028 yet

Method27 July 2026 · 7 min read

Why we will not call Euro 2028 yet

Cover illustration for Casement Park and the stadium that was not built

Analysis27 July 2026 · 7 min read

Casement Park and the stadium that was not built

players

Lionel MessiForward Cristiano RonaldoForward Kylian MbappéForward NeymarForward Lamine YamalWinger Harry KaneStriker Jude BellinghamMidfielder Erling HaalandStriker Mohamed SalahForward Bukayo SakaWinger Cole PalmerAttacking midfielder Alexander IsakStriker Florian WirtzAttacking midfielder Zinédine ZidaneAttacking midfielder Ronaldo NazárioStriker RonaldinhoAttacking midfielder Diego MaradonaAttacking midfielder PeléForward Johan CruyffForward XaviCentral midfielder Andrés IniestaCentral midfielder Thierry HenryForward Steven GerrardMidfielder Gianluigi BuffonGoalkeeper Franz BeckenbauerDefender Roberto BaggioSecond striker Paolo MaldiniDefender Alfredo Di StéfanoForward Vinícius JúniorWinger RodriDefensive midfielder Kevin De BruyneMidfielder Robert LewandowskiStriker Virgil van DijkCentre-back PedriMidfielder Luka ModrićMidfielder Son Heung-minForward Bruno FernandesMidfielder Jamal MusialaAttacking midfielder Lautaro MartínezStriker Federico ValverdeMidfielder David BeckhamMidfielder Zlatan IbrahimovićStriker Wayne RooneyForward RaphinhaWinger

the method

How the model worksBivariate Poisson goals, 100,000 seeded runs per match, calibrated against the market, and receipts that stay up after full time. Not betting advice.

Read the method