Premier League · Matchweek 10

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

Selhurst Park
Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 GMT

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 GMT

19%

CRY

21%

Draw

60%

LIV

Early forecast · published 4 November 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Crystal Palace are 18th on 7 points after 9 matches and Liverpool are 5th on 15. Crystal Palace last lost 0–2 away to Tottenham Hotspur; Liverpool last lost 0–1 at home to Arsenal.

Crystal Palace 19%, draw 21%, Liverpool 60%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 1–2, appearing in 9.8% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. Fitness and selection can still change before kick-off. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The last five rounds

Our reading: Crystal Palace have 4 points from their last five league matches (3 scored, 10 conceded). Liverpool have 9 (5 scored, 5 conceded). The market-calibrated model makes Liverpool the most likely single outcome, which is a statement about the prices, not about either run of form.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

18.5%

CRY

21.1%

Draw

60.3%

LIV

Over 2.5 goals: 61.3%. Both teams score: 58.7%.

1–2 9.8%1–1 9.5%0–2 9.0%0–1 9.0%1–3 6.9%0–3 6.1%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

3–22–21–42–10–51–31–10–13–12–20–21–20–02–31–32–42–20–21–30–21–21–21–51–12–22–11–31–42–11–20–11–31–30–30–01–41–32–43–11–21–12–33–40–51–21–41–24–20–20–21–12–10–41–00–21–43–00–12–30–51–10–42–11–11–22–41–21–20–20–21–21–30–42–32–01–31–21–11–32–02–22–30–20–22–22–32–00–11–41–00–20–21–41–20–11–11–13–20–31–1

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioCRYDrawLIV
Published baseline18.5%21.1%60.3%
CRY create less13.9%19.9%66.2%
CRY create more23.2%21.3%55.6%
LIV create less24.0%24.9%51.1%
LIV create more14.3%17.0%68.7%
Quieter match19.0%24.3%56.7%
Open match18.2%18.0%63.7%
Equal attacking rates37.5%24.1%38.4%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 1.10 for Crystal Palace, 2.10 for Liverpool; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 3.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261107. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: 425 / 330 / -170. Total 3.5: over 135, under -175. Retrieved 4 November 2026; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the open-source model

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 4 November snapshot

CRY18.1%

Draw22.1%

LIV59.8%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The last five rounds

Crystal Palace

4 points · 3 scored · 10 conceded

  1. Leeds United (A)0–0
  2. Nottingham Forest (H)3–1
  3. Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0–5
  4. Newcastle United (H)0–2
  5. Tottenham Hotspur (A)0–2

Oldest first. Scores shown from Crystal Palace’s perspective.

Liverpool

9 points · 5 scored · 5 conceded

  1. AFC Bournemouth (A)1–0
  2. Manchester City (H)0–3
  3. Brentford (A)2–1
  4. Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2–0
  5. Arsenal (H)0–1

Oldest first. Scores shown from Liverpool’s perspective.

Team news, dated

Each report describes the situation on its publication date. It does not confirm availability for the match.

Crystal Palace · 2026-11-04

Sky Sports' live blog reports Palace failed with their appeal against Jean-Philippe Mateta's red card, so he misses the next three league games including Liverpool. It also quotes Pierre Sage saying Ismaila Sarr (groin) is unlikely to return until after the international break.

Read the dated source

Liverpool · 2026-11-03

This Is Anfield reports Ryan Gravenberch (heel) is a doubt for Sunday's trip to Palace; Andoni Iraola said it is day-to-day. Jeremie Frimpong, Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni and Hugo Ekitike remain out with long-term injuries.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected lineups for this match. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Crystal Palace

2026-10-31 · 3-4-2-1

  • Dean Henderson
  • Axel Disasi
  • Jaydee Canvot
  • Chris Richards
  • Daichi Kamada
  • Adam Wharton
  • Tyrick Mitchell
  • Óscar Mingueza
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta
  • Yéremy Pino
  • Dwight McNeil
That day’s bench

Eddie Nketiah, Walter Benítez, Ben Chilwell, Darío Osorio, Cheick Doucouré, Will Hughes, Evann Guessand, Jefferson Lerma, Anan Khalaili

View the match record

Liverpool

2026-11-01 · 4-2-3-1

  • Alisson Becker
  • Virgil van Dijk
  • Jérémy Jacquet
  • Milos Kerkez
  • Ronald Araujo
  • Florian Wirtz
  • Trey Nyoni
  • Alexis Mac Allister
  • Alexander Isak
  • Bradley Barcola
  • Cody Gakpo
That day’s bench

Kostas Tsimikas, Víctor Muñoz, Lewis Koumas, Ryan Gravenberch, Rio Ngumoha, Wataru Endo, Joe Gomez, Giorgi Mamardashvili, Dominik Szoboszlai

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Crystal Palace

Liverpool

Questions about the fixture

When is Crystal Palace v Liverpool?

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 GMT, at Selhurst Park. This is Premier League matchweek 10.

What does the early model say?

Crystal Palace 19%, draw 21%, Liverpool 60%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 4 November 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for this match. Availability notes are dated and need checking before kick-off.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 4 November 2026. Team news updated 2026-11-04. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: Liverpool 60% to win in Crystal Palace v Liverpool (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/11/crystal-palace-v-liverpool

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 4 November 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.