Premier League · Matchweek 10

Arsenal v Hull City

Emirates Stadium
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 GMT

Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 GMT

81%

ARS

13%

Draw

6%

HUL

Early forecast · published 4 November 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Arsenal are 1st on 24 points after 9 matches and Hull City are 11th on 11. Arsenal last won 1–0 away to Liverpool; Hull City last drew 2–2 at home to Ipswich Town.

Arsenal 81%, draw 13%, Hull City 6%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 2–0, appearing in 13.1% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. Fitness and selection can still change before kick-off. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The last five rounds

Our reading: Arsenal have 12 points from their last five league matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). Hull City have 3 (6 scored, 8 conceded). The market-calibrated model makes Arsenal the most likely single outcome, which is a statement about the prices, not about either run of form.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

80.6%

ARS

13.3%

Draw

6.1%

HUL

Over 2.5 goals: 63.4%. Both teams score: 44.6%.

2–0 13.1%3–0 11.4%1–0 10.5%2–1 8.3%3–1 7.6%4–0 7.4%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

5–11–02–13–04–00–24–20–13–14–02–04–33–14–02–13–03–03–13–23–02–02–11–24–02–02–01–04–01–02–13–12–13–13–03–12–02–02–03–02–12–04–04–28–13–06–03–10–03–15–16–03–14–11–12–02–01–11–14–31–12–11–12–01–12–16–13–06–06–11–11–05–22–03–05–11–14–13–05–10–05–01–04–14–12–03–16–05–15–02–01–13–05–01–03–11–03–07–03–02–0

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioARSDrawHUL
Published baseline80.6%13.3%6.1%
ARS create less72.2%19.0%8.8%
ARS create more86.6%9.6%3.8%
HUL create less83.4%12.3%4.3%
HUL create more77.9%14.4%7.7%
Quieter match75.5%17.9%6.6%
Open match84.3%10.6%5.1%
Equal attacking rates37.8%24.3%37.9%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 2.65 for Arsenal, 0.65 for Hull City; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 3.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261103. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: -600 / 650 / 1400. Total 3.5: over 125, under -160. Retrieved 4 November 2026; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the open-source model

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 4 November snapshot

ARS81.1%

Draw12.6%

HUL6.3%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The last five rounds

Arsenal

12 points · 6 scored · 4 conceded

  1. Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0–3
  2. Leeds United (H)2–1
  3. Nottingham Forest (A)1–0
  4. Everton (H)2–0
  5. Liverpool (A)1–0

Oldest first. Scores shown from Arsenal’s perspective.

Hull City

3 points · 6 scored · 8 conceded

  1. Newcastle United (A)1–2
  2. Everton (H)2–2
  3. Fulham (A)0–1
  4. Brentford (H)1–1
  5. Ipswich Town (H)2–2

Oldest first. Scores shown from Hull City’s perspective.

Team news, dated

Each report describes the situation on its publication date. It does not confirm availability for the match.

Arsenal · 2026-11-04

Premier Injuries (updated 4 November) lists Bukayo Saka (thigh) as ruled out and Max Dowman as suspended after a red card. William Saliba (back) is at 50% and being assessed.

Read the dated source

Hull City · 2026-10-31

Sports Mole reports Matt Crooks is suspended for the Arsenal game after his fifth yellow card against Ipswich. Darko Gyabi, Lucas Gourna-Douath and Eliot Matazo are injured, with Gyabi and Gourna-Douath expected back at some point in November.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected lineups for this match. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Arsenal

2026-11-01 · 4-2-3-1

  • David Raya
  • Gabriel Magalhães
  • Ezri Konsa
  • Riccardo Calafiori
  • Jurriën Timber
  • Martin Ødegaard
  • Bruno Guimarães
  • Declan Rice
  • Kai Havertz
  • Christos Tzolis
  • Noni Madueke
That day’s bench

Kepa Arrizabalaga, Piero Hincapié, Viktor Gyökeres, Ben White, Martín Zubimendi, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Cristhian Mosquera

View the match record

Hull City

2026-10-31 · 5-4-1

  • Konstantinos Tzolakis
  • John Egan
  • Nobel Mendy
  • Semi Ajayi
  • Ryan Giles
  • Lewie Coyle
  • Regan Slater
  • Tim Iroegbunam
  • Elliot Stroud
  • Mohamed Belloumi
  • Oliver McBurnie
That day’s bench

Hidemasa Morita, Christos Mouzakitis, Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Matt Crooks, Mohamed-Ali Cho, Paddy McNair, Dillon Phillips, Lucas Herrington, Joe Gelhardt

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Arsenal

Hull City

Questions about the fixture

When is Arsenal v Hull City?

Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 GMT, at Emirates Stadium. This is Premier League matchweek 10.

What does the early model say?

Arsenal 81%, draw 13%, Hull City 6%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 4 November 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for this match. Availability notes are dated and need checking before kick-off.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 4 November 2026. Team news updated 2026-11-04. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: Arsenal 81% to win in Arsenal v Hull City (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/11/arsenal-v-hull-city

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 4 November 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.