Premier League · Matchweek 10

Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur

Elland Road
Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 GMT

Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 GMT

38%

LEE

27%

Draw

35%

TOT

Early forecast · published 4 November 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Leeds United are 12th on 11 points after 9 matches and Tottenham Hotspur are 9th on 12. Leeds United last lost 0–2 away to AFC Bournemouth; Tottenham Hotspur last won 2–0 at home to Crystal Palace.

Leeds United 38%, draw 27%, Tottenham Hotspur 35%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 1–1, appearing in 12.4% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. Fitness and selection can still change before kick-off. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The last five rounds

Our reading: Leeds United have 3 points from their last five league matches (2 scored, 5 conceded). Tottenham Hotspur have 10 (10 scored, 5 conceded). The market-calibrated model makes Leeds United the most likely single outcome, which is a statement about the prices, not about either run of form.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

37.6%

LEE

27.1%

Draw

35.3%

TOT

Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams score: 54.3%.

1–1 12.4%1–0 9.8%0–1 9.4%2–1 8.3%1–2 8.1%0–0 7.7%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

1–10–10–10–10–32–10–20–10–20–02–11–00–11–10–01–22–11–20–23–10–21–20–10–01–02–21–20–34–11–12–11–01–21–30–21–01–41–01–01–12–11–23–21–10–00–21–21–21–12–22–12–05–00–21–11–11–10–22–51–11–11–00–12–00–31–26–40–02–00–33–02–21–32–01–03–04–51–21–10–13–23–01–01–24–11–02–20–20–20–11–00–12–00–00–00–02–12–11–01–1

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioLEEDrawTOT
Published baseline37.6%27.1%35.3%
LEE create less30.3%29.0%40.8%
LEE create more44.7%25.3%30.0%
TOT create less44.1%28.3%27.7%
TOT create more32.4%25.3%42.3%
Quieter match35.4%31.2%33.4%
Open match39.0%24.0%37.0%
Equal attacking rates36.9%27.4%35.7%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 1.35 for Leeds United, 1.30 for Tottenham Hotspur; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 2.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261102. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: 155 / 235 / 170. Total 2.5: over -110, under -120. Retrieved 4 November 2026; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the open-source model

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 4 November snapshot

LEE37.0%

Draw28.1%

TOT34.9%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The last five rounds

Leeds United

3 points · 2 scored · 5 conceded

  1. Crystal Palace (H)0–0
  2. Arsenal (A)1–2
  3. Manchester United (H)1–1
  4. Sunderland (A)0–0
  5. AFC Bournemouth (A)0–2

Oldest first. Scores shown from Leeds United’s perspective.

Tottenham Hotspur

10 points · 10 scored · 5 conceded

  1. Aston Villa (H)2–3
  2. Manchester United (A)1–1
  3. Coventry City (H)3–1
  4. Chelsea (A)2–0
  5. Crystal Palace (H)2–0

Oldest first. Scores shown from Tottenham Hotspur’s perspective.

Team news, dated

Each report describes the situation on its publication date. It does not confirm availability for the match.

Tottenham Hotspur · 2026-11-03

Yorkshire Evening Post reports Tosin Adarabioyo and Lucas Bergvall, both missing from the Palace matchday squad, look set to return at Elland Road. Its 2 November piece lists James Maddison as back after limping off at Chelsea.

Read the dated source

Leeds United · 2026-11-02

Yorkshire Evening Post reports Noah Okafor (adductor) is a doubt after missing the Bournemouth game. Joe Rodon (hamstring) and Anton Stach (foot) are also doubts. Premier Injuries lists Mateo Joseph (ACL) as ruled out until about 30 January.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected lineups for this match. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Leeds United

2026-10-31 · 3-4-2-1

  • James Trafford
  • Nico Elvedi
  • Tarik Muharemovic
  • James Justin
  • Ao Tanaka
  • Ethan Ampadu
  • Gabriel Gudmundsson
  • Jayden Bogle
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin
  • Daniel James
  • Harry Wilson
That day’s bench

Lukas Nmecha, Sean Longstaff, Michael Zetterer, Ilia Gruev, Melvin Bard, Brenden Aaronson, Anton Stach, Jaka Bijol, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya

View the match record

Tottenham Hotspur

2026-10-31 · 4-2-3-1

  • Antonín Kinsky
  • Micky van de Ven
  • Jan Paul van Hecke
  • Andy Robertson
  • Archie Gray
  • Omar Marmoush
  • Mateus Fernandes
  • Sandro Tonali
  • Dominic Solanke
  • Mathys Tel
  • Mohammed Kudus
That day’s bench

Ben Davies, Martin Dúbravka, Marcos Senesi, Pedro Porro, Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison, Luca Williams-Barnett, Destiny Udogie, Conor Gallagher

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Leeds United

Tottenham Hotspur

Questions about the fixture

When is Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur?

Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 GMT, at Elland Road. This is Premier League matchweek 10.

What does the early model say?

Leeds United 38%, draw 27%, Tottenham Hotspur 35%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 4 November 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for this match. Availability notes are dated and need checking before kick-off.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 4 November 2026. Team news updated 2026-11-04. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: Leeds United 38% to win in Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/11/leeds-united-v-tottenham-hotspur

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 4 November 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.