2028 season
Euro 2028
The UEFA European Championship, hosted across England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland from June 2028. Each match modelled once the fixtures land.
No Euro 2028 matches modelled yet
Touchline models the games worth arguing over. When a big Euro 2028 match is on, it lands here with the full brief, the model you can run yourself, and live odds.
qualifying simulator
Drag a host’s strength, then run 5,000 qualifying campaigns.
The draw is not made, so every campaign draws its own groups from the pots and the spread includes that luck. Strengths are a starting prior, not a prediction. Only the two lowest-ranked hosts can actually miss: the two reserved places always reach the two best-ranked, so drag a host up the order and watch their risk disappear.
About Euro 2028
UEFA Euro 2028 is the European Championship, hosted across England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland from 9 June to 9 July 2028. Twenty-four nations, 51 matches, and the first Euros held on these islands since England staged the tournament in 1996. The opening game is in Cardiff; both semi-finals and the final are at Wembley.
Nine stadiums across eight cities will host it: Wembley and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, the Etihad in Manchester, Everton's new stadium on the Mersey, St James' Park in Newcastle, Villa Park in Birmingham, Hampden Park in Glasgow, the Principality Stadium in Cardiff and the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Belfast's Casement Park was in the original bid but was dropped in 2024 when the cost and timeline of its rebuild fell through, which took Northern Ireland off the map as a host.
Predictions are only as good as the fixtures behind them, and none exist yet. The hosts do not even qualify automatically: all four must go through qualifying, with only two places reserved as a safety net for the best-ranked hosts who fall short. The qualifying draw is in December 2026 and the groups run through 2027, so until then there are no opponents to model, only guesses dressed up as forecasts, which this site refuses to publish.
One question can be modelled honestly before the draw, though, and it is the one the format itself creates. Under the qualification system UEFA approved, 12 group winners and the eight best runners-up go straight through, and exactly two places are then reserved for the best-ranked hosts who missed out. The simulator above runs qualifying 5,000 times and draws fresh groups from the pots on every campaign, so the luck of the draw sits inside the numbers rather than being assumed away. What comes back is structural rather than predictive: because those two reserved places always reach the two best-ranked hosts, only the two lowest-ranked can genuinely miss, and on the default prior at least one host is absent from a tournament in its own country in about 7% of campaigns.
For an outright view, history is the only honest guide until the football starts. Spain are the record holders and reigning champions with four titles, ahead of Germany on three. England have lost the last two finals, to Italy in 2021 and Spain in 2024, and have never won the men's Euros; no home nation ever has. Anyone selling you a confident Euro 2028 winner today is selling a hunch.
When the draw lands, every Euro 2028 match will get the same treatment as the World Cup pages here: a seeded Monte Carlo simulation you can run yourself, live odds framed as information rather than a tip, the tactical brief, and a graded record kept afterwards with the misses left in. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.
Common questions
- When is Euro 2028?
- From 9 June to 9 July 2028, with the final at Wembley. Qualifying runs through 2027, and the qualifying draw is on 6 December 2026.
- Where is Euro 2028 being held?
- Across England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland: nine stadiums in eight cities, from Wembley and Tottenham in London to Hampden Park in Glasgow, the Principality Stadium in Cardiff and the Aviva in Dublin. It is the first Euros on these islands since Euro 96.
- Why isn't Northern Ireland hosting Euro 2028?
- Belfast's Casement Park was part of the original bid, but it was dropped in 2024 when the cost and timeline of its rebuild fell through, so Northern Ireland is no longer a host.
- Do the Euro 2028 hosts qualify automatically?
- No. All four host nations must enter qualifying. Only two places are reserved as a safety net for the two best-ranked hosts who fail to qualify on merit.
- How many teams qualify for Euro 2028 directly?
- Twenty. The 12 qualifying group winners and the eight best runners-up go straight through to a 24-team finals. The remaining four places are settled after the group stage, by the hosts' two reserved spots and the play-offs.
- How do the Euro 2028 play-offs work?
- They fill whatever is left of the 24. The remaining group runners-up meet the best-ranked 2026/27 Nations League group winners who have not already qualified. How many places are at stake depends on the hosts: if both reserved spots are used, the play-offs decide two, and if no host needs one, they decide four.
- When does Euro 2028 qualifying start?
- March 2027, running to November 2027. Fifty-four nations are drawn into 12 groups of four or five and play each other home and away. The draw itself is on 6 December 2026, so the groups are known a few months before the first matches.
- Where is the Euro 2028 qualifying draw being held?
- Belfast. Northern Ireland lost its place as a host when Casement Park was dropped from the bid, so the draw going there is the consolation: the country stages the moment the tournament takes shape without staging any of the football.
- Who will win Euro 2028?
- Too early for an honest answer: the teams are not all qualified and the draw is not made. Spain, the record four-time and reigning champions, and Germany on three lead the history; England have lost the last two finals and no home nation has ever won. When the draw lands, this site will model each match rather than sell a headline pick.
- Is there a Euro 2028 simulator?
- Yes, for qualifying. The simulator on this page runs 5,000 qualifying campaigns in your browser, drawing fresh groups from the pots each time, and reports how often each host nation reaches the finals. The team strengths are a starting prior you can drag, not a prediction, and the model is seeded so the same settings always give the same answer.
- Could a host nation miss Euro 2028?
- Two of them could. Because the two reserved places go to the best-ranked hosts who fail to qualify, the top two hosts in the rankings are always covered and cannot miss. Only the two lowest-ranked are genuinely exposed, and they would still have the play-offs. On this page's default prior, at least one host is absent in about 7% of simulated campaigns.
- Are there Euro 2028 predictions on Touchline yet?
- Not match-by-match, because the fixtures do not exist yet. Qualifying can be simulated, and is, on this page. The moment the December 2026 qualifying draw and then the finals draw land, each game gets a full Monte Carlo model, live odds and the tactical brief, with every call kept on the record.