Premier League · Matchweek 6

Hull City v Everton

The MKM Stadium
Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST

27%

HUL

27%

Draw

46%

EVE

Early forecast · published 23 September 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Hull have not conceded in either home league game, beating Manchester United and drawing with Villa. Everton arrive unbeaten through five, including a goalless draw at Spurs and a 1–1 draw at Bournemouth. Everton are the market favourites, but the home record asks a useful question.

Hull City 27%, draw 27%, Everton 46%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 1–1, appearing in 12.5% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. The international break leaves time for fitness and selection to change. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The matchup

Inference: Hull can test whether Everton can create enough against a protected penalty area. The first five scores support a lower-tempo scenario, not a promise of another clean sheet.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

26.5%

HUL

27.3%

Draw

46.2%

EVE

Over 2.5 goals: 45.4%. Both teams score: 50.4%.

1–1 12.5%0–1 12.2%1–2 9.0%0–0 8.8%1–0 8.8%0–2 8.3%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

1–03–21–20–40–10–30–34–40–12–20–12–10–20–10–20–11–00–21–40–22–42–10–13–12–01–10–00–11–31–20–32–00–10–41–21–10–31–10–14–11–51–10–10–11–23–32–10–30–20–33–11–10–22–40–21–02–10–12–21–20–02–00–32–12–01–11–11–15–11–30–11–21–14–31–20–14–01–21–52–10–12–13–00–02–11–20–40–01–22–22–31–21–11–13–10–01–00–60–02–2

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioHULDrawEVE
Published baseline26.5%27.3%46.2%
HUL create less20.9%27.8%51.3%
HUL create more32.0%26.9%41.2%
EVE create less32.1%30.0%37.9%
EVE create more21.9%24.6%53.5%
Quieter match25.6%31.3%43.1%
Open match26.9%24.3%48.8%
Equal attacking rates35.8%28.2%35.9%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 1.05 for Hull City, 1.45 for Everton; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 2.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261697. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: 260 / 230 / 105. Total 2.5: over 105, under -140. Retrieved 23 September; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the engine

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 23 September snapshot

HUL26.0%

Draw28.4%

EVE45.6%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The opening five rounds

Hull City

8 points · 6 scored · 4 conceded

  1. Manchester United (H)2–0
  2. Coventry City (A)1–0
  3. Aston Villa (H)0–0
  4. Chelsea (A)2–2
  5. Newcastle United (A)1–2

Oldest first. Scores shown from Hull City’s perspective.

Everton

9 points · 6 scored · 3 conceded

  1. Crystal Palace (H)2–0
  2. AFC Bournemouth (A)1–1
  3. Manchester United (H)2–2
  4. Tottenham Hotspur (A)0–0
  5. Ipswich Town (H)1–0

Oldest first. Scores shown from Everton’s perspective.

Team news, dated

September reports describe the situation on their publication date. They do not confirm availability for October.

Hull City · 2026-09-17

Nobel Mendy missed Newcastle under concussion protocol. Targett had an ankle concern; Morita and Hughes were working towards training returns during the break. Butland was not expected in full training until December.

Read the dated source

Everton · 2026-09-18

Moyes hoped Merlin Rohl would return at the end of the international break. Christian Norgaard was also unavailable against Ipswich. Neither has a verified October selection status.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected October lineups. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Hull City

2026-09-19 · 5-4-1

  • Konstantinos Tzolakis
  • John Egan
  • Lucas Herrington
  • Semi Ajayi
  • Ryan Giles
  • Lewie Coyle
  • Regan Slater
  • Matt Crooks
  • Sorba Thomas
  • Mohamed Belloumi
  • Oliver McBurnie
That day’s bench

Robinio Vaz, Jens Hjerto Dahl, Lucas Gourna-Douath, Mohamed-Ali Cho, Elliot Stroud, Joe Gelhardt, Paddy McNair, Dillon Phillips, Tim Iroegbunam

View the match record

Everton

2026-09-19 · 4-2-3-1

  • Jordan Pickford
  • Jarrad Branthwaite
  • James Tarkowski
  • Vitaliy Mykolenko
  • Ainsley Maitland-Niles
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
  • James Garner
  • Harrison Armstrong
  • Thierno Barry
  • Jack Grealish
  • Brennan Johnson
That day’s bench

Jake O'Brien, Michael Keane, Tyrique George, Mark Travers, Tyler Dibling, Charly Alcaraz, Hayden Hackney, Tom King, Braiden Graham

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Hull City

Everton

Questions about the fixture

When is Hull City v Everton?

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST, at The MKM Stadium. This is Premier League matchweek 6.

What does the early model say?

Hull City 27%, draw 27%, Everton 46%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 23 September 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for October. Availability notes are dated and need checking after the international break.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 23 September 2026. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: Everton 46% to win in Hull City v Everton (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/10/hull-city-v-everton

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 23 September 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.