Premier League · Matchweek 10

Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth

Portman Road
Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 GMT

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 GMT

26%

IPS

25%

Draw

49%

BOU

Early forecast · published 4 November 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Ipswich Town are 14th on 11 points after 9 matches and AFC Bournemouth are 8th on 12. Ipswich Town last drew 2–2 away to Hull City; AFC Bournemouth last won 2–0 at home to Leeds United.

Ipswich Town 26%, draw 25%, AFC Bournemouth 49%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 1–1, appearing in 11.4% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. Fitness and selection can still change before kick-off. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The last five rounds

Our reading: Ipswich Town have 5 points from their last five league matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). AFC Bournemouth have 9 (8 scored, 6 conceded). The market-calibrated model makes AFC Bournemouth the most likely single outcome, which is a statement about the prices, not about either run of form.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

26.5%

IPS

24.8%

Draw

48.8%

BOU

Over 2.5 goals: 54.8%. Both teams score: 57.6%.

1–1 11.4%1–2 9.6%0–1 9.5%0–2 7.8%1–0 6.8%2–1 6.5%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

2–20–20–21–31–43–10–00–21–13–00–33–10–25–21–00–23–32–11–22–21–11–22–02–52–03–54–14–11–20–21–03–11–40–21–20–21–32–10–11–22–10–11–10–31–20–61–23–01–12–10–02–30–01–22–43–21–42–11–20–04–32–21–11–10–11–01–11–12–10–22–22–60–11–21–21–20–41–10–31–21–22–01–33–13–40–01–10–10–12–21–32–01–32–11–33–11–11–11–30–1

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioIPSDrawBOU
Published baseline26.5%24.8%48.8%
IPS create less20.5%24.8%54.7%
IPS create more32.5%24.6%43.0%
BOU create less32.7%27.5%39.8%
BOU create more21.9%21.7%56.4%
Quieter match25.9%28.5%45.6%
Open match27.1%21.8%51.1%
Equal attacking rates37.7%25.4%36.9%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 1.20 for Ipswich Town, 1.70 for AFC Bournemouth; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 2.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261108. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: 270 / 270 / -105. Total 2.5: over -145, under 110. Retrieved 4 November 2026; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the open-source model

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 4 November snapshot

IPS25.7%

Draw25.7%

BOU48.7%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The last five rounds

Ipswich Town

5 points · 7 scored · 8 conceded

  1. Everton (A)0–1
  2. Fulham (H)2–1
  3. Manchester City (A)2–3
  4. Nottingham Forest (H)1–1
  5. Hull City (A)2–2

Oldest first. Scores shown from Ipswich Town’s perspective.

AFC Bournemouth

9 points · 8 scored · 6 conceded

  1. Liverpool (H)0–1
  2. Chelsea (A)1–5
  3. Sunderland (H)2–0
  4. Manchester United (A)3–0
  5. Leeds United (H)2–0

Oldest first. Scores shown from AFC Bournemouth’s perspective.

Team news, dated

Each report describes the situation on its publication date. It does not confirm availability for the match.

Ipswich Town · 2026-11-01

Suffolk News reports manager Gary O'Neil expects midfielder Sasa Lukic to return against Bournemouth after three games out with a groin injury. Anything could still change, O'Neil added.

Read the dated source

AFC Bournemouth · 2026-11-03

RotoWire reports Alex Scott (thigh) is ruled out of Thursday's Europa League tie but could return at Ipswich. Marco Rose said it could be an option, but the club has to ask whether it is reasonable. Scott has missed seven games.

Read the dated source

AFC Bournemouth · 2026-11-03

Squawka reports Bournemouth travel without Alex Toth and Julian Araujo, both ruled out with thigh injuries, while Alex Scott (thigh) is doubtful.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected lineups for this match. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Ipswich Town

2026-10-31 · 4-2-3-1

  • Christian Walton
  • Issa Diop
  • Dara O'Shea
  • Leif Davis
  • Abdoul Ouattara
  • Julio Enciso
  • Exequiel Palacios
  • Florentino
  • Emersonn
  • Jaden Philogene
  • Fatawu Issahaku
That day’s bench

Marcelino Núñez, Chuba Akpom, Kjell Scherpen, Jacob Greaves, Azor Matusiwa, Darnell Furlong, Jack Clarke, Daizen Maeda, Zian Flemming

View the match record

AFC Bournemouth

2026-10-31 · 4-2-3-1

  • Djordje Petrovic
  • António Silva
  • James Hill
  • Adrien Truffert
  • Adam Smith
  • Justin Kluivert
  • Ryan Christie
  • Tyler Adams
  • Evanilson
  • Marcus Tavernier
  • Rayan
That day’s bench

Álvaro Rodríguez, Bafodé Diakité, Junior Kroupi, David Brooks, Julio Soler, Ben Gannon-Doak, Michele Di Gregorio, Amine Adli, Lewis Cook

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Ipswich Town

AFC Bournemouth

Questions about the fixture

When is Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth?

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 GMT, at Portman Road. This is Premier League matchweek 10.

What does the early model say?

Ipswich Town 26%, draw 25%, AFC Bournemouth 49%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 4 November 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for this match. Availability notes are dated and need checking before kick-off.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 4 November 2026. Team news updated 2026-11-04. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: AFC Bournemouth 49% to win in Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/11/ipswich-town-v-afc-bournemouth

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 4 November 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.