2026 season

World Cup 2026

Every knockout tie at the 2026 World Cup, modelled: win probabilities from 100,000 simulations, live market odds, and the tactical brief.

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Final

SpainvArgentina

 

Sun 19 July · 20:00 BST · MetLife Stadium, New Jersey

55.6% ESPto lift the trophyARG 44.4%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-final

EnglandvArgentina

1–2FT

The model's verdict was Argentina 2–1, the exact score.

47% ENGto reach the finalARG 53%

Researched, modelled, and written by James Frewin. Sources are linked and the maths is seeded, but AI can make mistakes: check anything that matters. Analysis to argue with, not advice, and never betting advice.