Premier League · Matchweek 6

Ipswich Town v Fulham

Portman Road
Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST

36%

IPS

26%

Draw

38%

FUL

Early forecast · published 23 September 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Ipswich have six points from five games, with wins over Sunderland and Crystal Palace interrupted by defeats against Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton. They have scored seven and conceded eleven. Fulham lost their opening three games, then drew at Liverpool and at home to Manchester United. The latter needed an 89th-minute Cunha equaliser after a Martinez own goal had put Fulham ahead.

Ipswich Town 36%, draw 26%, Fulham 38%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 1–1, appearing in 11.8% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. The international break leaves time for fitness and selection to change. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The matchup

Inference: Fulham's recent draws suggest a case for testing a lower-scoring match, but five games are too few to assume a defensive transformation. Ipswich's seven goals and eleven conceded leave both attacking and defensive assumptions open. Use the tempo and team-rate controls to test that uncertainty.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

35.8%

IPS

25.8%

Draw

38.4%

FUL

Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams score: 58.0%.

1–1 11.8%0–1 8.7%1–2 8.5%1–0 8.2%2–1 8.2%0–0 6.3%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

0–30–12–12–22–22–00–11–20–10–22–11–02–02–23–01–52–02–32–30–03–23–23–13–22–31–11–02–02–00–10–23–10–03–01–40–21–10–11–12–11–04–40–24–22–24–11–12–61–42–24–22–02–03–12–00–11–30–13–02–41–22–12–10–10–23–20–01–11–02–00–41–11–13–21–01–20–22–11–26–02–10–20–21–03–10–03–21–30–22–12–01–10–10–12–10–32–33–02–00–0

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioIPSDrawFUL
Published baseline35.8%25.8%38.4%
IPS create less28.2%27.6%44.2%
IPS create more42.2%25.2%32.5%
FUL create less41.5%27.7%30.8%
FUL create more30.0%24.0%46.0%
Quieter match33.5%29.9%36.5%
Open match36.7%23.3%40.0%
Equal attacking rates36.9%26.2%36.9%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 1.40 for Ipswich Town, 1.45 for Fulham; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 2.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261188. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: 160 / 250 / 150. Total 2.5: over -135, under 100. Retrieved 23 September; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the engine

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 23 September snapshot

IPS35.9%

Draw26.7%

FUL37.4%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The opening five rounds

Ipswich Town

6 points · 7 scored · 11 conceded

  1. Sunderland (H)2–1
  2. Manchester United (A)2–5
  3. Liverpool (H)0–2
  4. Crystal Palace (A)3–2
  5. Everton (A)0–1

Oldest first. Scores shown from Ipswich Town’s perspective.

Fulham

2 points · 5 scored · 8 conceded

  1. Chelsea (H)2–3
  2. Sunderland (A)0–1
  3. Crystal Palace (H)2–3
  4. Liverpool (A)0–0
  5. Manchester United (H)1–1

Oldest first. Scores shown from Fulham’s perspective.

Team news, dated

September reports describe the situation on their publication date. They do not confirm availability for October.

Ipswich Town · 2026-10-08

Sports Mole reports Abdul Fatawu suspended for Fulham and Jack Taylor still a fitness question after a knee injury. The replacement on the wing and the starting goalkeeper are not confirmed.

Read the dated source

Fulham · 2026-10-08

Sports Mole reports Tom Cairney still out with a knee injury and Kenny Tete potentially returning after concussion. Tete has not yet been confirmed in the matchday squad.

Read the dated source

Ipswich Town · 2026-09-19

Ipswich started Christian Walton and Abdoul Ouattara at Everton on 19 September. This was Ouattara's first league start for the club. Treat that selection as the last confirmed XI, not an October prediction.

Read the dated source

Fulham · 2026-09-20

Ryan Sessegnon returned to the bench against Manchester United on 20 September after a groin problem. There is no verified October availability update.

Read the dated source

Fulham · 2026-09-20

Kenny Tete (concussion) and Tom Cairney (knee) were reported unavailable for the 20 September Manchester United match. This does not establish October availability.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected October lineups. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Ipswich Town

2026-09-19 · 4-2-3-1

  • Christian Walton
  • Dara O'Shea
  • Issa Diop
  • Leif Davis
  • Abdoul Ouattara
  • Julio Enciso
  • Exequiel Palacios
  • Sasa Lukic
  • Emersonn
  • Jack Clarke
  • Fatawu Issahaku
That day’s bench

Jaden Philogene, Daizen Maeda, Florentino, Chuba Akpom, Marcelino Núñez, Kjell Scherpen, Darnell Furlong, Jacob Greaves, Zian Flemming

View the match record

Fulham

2026-09-20 · 4-2-3-1

  • Bernd Leno
  • Calvin Bassey
  • David Affengruber
  • Antonee Robinson
  • Timothy Castagne
  • Josh King
  • Shea Charles
  • Sander Berge
  • Gonzalo García
  • Alex Iwobi
  • Oscar Bobb
That day’s bench

Ryan Sessegnon, Rodrigo Muniz, Emile Smith Rowe, Hugo Larsson, Joachim Andersen, Kevin, Benjamin Lecomte, Manuel Ángel, César Palacios

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Ipswich Town

Fulham

Questions about the fixture

When is Ipswich Town v Fulham?

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST, at Portman Road. This is Premier League matchweek 6.

What does the early model say?

Ipswich Town 36%, draw 26%, Fulham 38%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 23 September 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for October. Availability notes are dated and need checking after the international break.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 23 September 2026. Team news updated 2026-10-09. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: Fulham 38% to win in Ipswich Town v Fulham (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/10/ipswich-town-v-fulham

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 23 September 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.