Premier League · Matchweek 6

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest

Selhurst Park
Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST

37%

CRY

27%

Draw

36%

NFO

Early forecast · published 23 September 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Palace finished their first five league matches with a clean sheet at Leeds. Forest failed to score against Coventry after winning at Villa. Both have one league win. The market makes their win prices identical.

Crystal Palace 37%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 36%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 1–1, appearing in 12.6% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. The international break leaves time for fitness and selection to change. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The matchup

Inference: this looks more sensitive to the first goal than the headline names. Forest need patience if Palace sit deep; their own post-Coventry assessment emphasised wasted chances and losing composure after conceding.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

36.7%

CRY

27.1%

Draw

36.1%

NFO

Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams score: 53.7%.

1–1 12.6%0–1 9.9%1–0 9.9%2–1 8.1%1–2 8.0%0–0 7.8%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

1–12–11–01–20–01–11–21–14–00–11–01–11–10–31–13–42–21–00–20–01–13–23–20–00–02–01–13–22–20–12–21–31–20–02–11–01–32–00–11–20–31–02–20–01–12–20–11–21–00–02–22–03–23–33–22–21–13–31–02–01–12–11–31–02–10–41–02–14–31–11–32–22–01–33–21–12–30–10–10–00–14–00–12–21–13–02–20–12–21–22–42–21–11–11–40–21–12–01–02–0

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioCRYDrawNFO
Published baseline36.7%27.1%36.1%
CRY create less28.4%29.5%42.2%
CRY create more43.0%25.8%31.3%
NFO create less41.9%29.1%29.0%
NFO create more30.8%26.2%43.0%
Quieter match33.8%31.8%34.4%
Open match37.8%24.7%37.5%
Equal attacking rates36.0%27.7%36.3%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 1.30 for Crystal Palace, 1.30 for Nottingham Forest; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 2.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261189. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: 160 / 235 / 160. Total 2.5: over -105, under -130. Retrieved 23 September; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the engine

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 23 September snapshot

CRY36.0%

Draw28.0%

NFO36.0%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The opening five rounds

Crystal Palace

4 points · 6 scored · 11 conceded

  1. Everton (A)0–2
  2. Manchester City (H)1–4
  3. Fulham (A)3–2
  4. Ipswich Town (H)2–3
  5. Leeds United (A)0–0

Oldest first. Scores shown from Crystal Palace’s perspective.

Nottingham Forest

5 points · 4 scored · 5 conceded

  1. Leeds United (H)0–1
  2. Liverpool (A)2–2
  3. Tottenham Hotspur (H)0–0
  4. Aston Villa (A)2–1
  5. Coventry City (H)0–1

Oldest first. Scores shown from Nottingham Forest’s perspective.

Team news, dated

September reports describe the situation on their publication date. They do not confirm availability for October.

Crystal Palace · 2026-09-18

Dean Henderson, Chadi Riad and Jean-Philippe Mateta missed the Leeds build-up through injury. Axel Disasi began a three-match domestic suspension. Sarr had returned to the squad. October availability still needs confirmation.

Read the dated source

Nottingham Forest · 2026-09-17

Nikola Milenkovic and Nicolo Savona were unavailable before Coventry. Jair Cunha had returned to training. These are September statuses, not confirmed absences for Palace.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected October lineups. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Crystal Palace

2026-09-20 · 3-4-2-1

  • Walter Benítez
  • Takehiro Tomiyasu
  • Jaydee Canvot
  • Chris Richards
  • Adam Wharton
  • Quinten Timber
  • Tyrick Mitchell
  • Anan Khalaili
  • Jørgen Strand Larsen
  • Yéremy Pino
  • Daichi Kamada
That day’s bench

Ben Chilwell, Eddie Nketiah, Óscar Mingueza, Darío Osorio, Ismaïla Sarr, Remi Matthews, Dwight McNeil, Cheick Doucouré, Jefferson Lerma

View the match record

Nottingham Forest

2026-09-19 · 3-4-2-1

  • Matz Sels
  • Ousmane Diomande
  • Murillo
  • Jair Paula
  • Xaver Schlager
  • James McAtee
  • Neco Williams
  • Daniel Muñoz
  • Liam Delap
  • Dan Ndoye
  • Morgan Gibbs-White
That day’s bench

Chris Wood, Ryan Yates, Nicolás Domínguez, Igor Jesus, Ibrahim Sangaré, Luca Netz, Callum Hudson-Odoi, John Victor, Ola Aina

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Crystal Palace

Nottingham Forest

Questions about the fixture

When is Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST, at Selhurst Park. This is Premier League matchweek 6.

What does the early model say?

Crystal Palace 37%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 36%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 23 September 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for October. Availability notes are dated and need checking after the international break.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 23 September 2026. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: Crystal Palace 37% to win in Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/10/crystal-palace-v-nottingham-forest

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 23 September 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.