receipts

Every call, on the record

Every call the model makes is published before kick-off, timestamped, and left up whether it ages well or not. This page is the ledger: the headline probability, the verdict scoreline, and what actually happened, side by side. It is derived from the same data the match pages read, so nothing can be quietly rewritten.

settled calls

26 Jul 2026 · Formula 1 · Round 11 of 22

Hungarian Grand Prix
Wrong

the call

Antonelli 32.8% to win the race

Verdict: Antonelli favoured, on the cleanest track to be favourite

the result

Norris converted pole into McLaren's first win of 2026, 15 seconds clear of Verstappen, after Piastri led early and retired with a gearbox failure. Antonelli was third and left for the break 50 points clear.

ANT 32.8the field 67.2

Sources: Formula 1, official 2026 Hungarian GP race result · Formula 1, race report: Norris beats Verstappen and Antonelli

15 Jul 2026 · FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-final

England v Argentina
Exact score

the call

Argentina 53.0% to reach the final

Verdict: Argentina 2–1 England

the result

England 1–2 Argentina

The model's verdict was Argentina 2–1, the exact score.

ENG 47.0ARG 53.0

The published verdict, Argentina 2–1 at 53.0%, was the exact score (a 10.5% single outcome). The miss: the model treated extra time as the danger zone when stoppage time was.

Sources: Al Jazeera, match report · ESPN, match report · Sofascore, Argentina keep scoring late

open calls

21 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Arsenal v Coventry City
On the record

the call

Arsenal 78 / draw 15 / Coventry City 7 to win

the status

Kicks off Fri 21 Aug · 20:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

ARS 78draw 15COV 7

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Hull City v Manchester United
On the record

the call

Hull City 17 / draw 22 / Manchester United 61 to win

the status

Kicks off Sat 22 Aug · 12:30 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

HUL 17draw 22MUN 61

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Everton v Crystal Palace
On the record

the call

Everton 44 / draw 28 / Crystal Palace 28 to win

the status

Kicks off Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

EVE 44draw 28CRY 28

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Ipswich Town v Sunderland
On the record

the call

Ipswich Town 34 / draw 29 / Sunderland 37 to win

the status

Kicks off Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

IPS 34draw 29SUN 37

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Nottingham Forest v Leeds United
On the record

the call

Nottingham Forest 42 / draw 28 / Leeds United 30 to win

the status

Kicks off Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

NFO 42draw 28LEE 30

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur
On the record

the call

Brentford 41 / draw 26 / Tottenham Hotspur 33 to win

the status

Kicks off Sat 22 Aug · 17:30 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

BRE 41draw 26TOT 33

23 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa
On the record

the call

Brighton & Hove Albion 39 / draw 27 / Aston Villa 34 to win

the status

Kicks off Sun 23 Aug · 14:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

BHA 39draw 27AVL 34

23 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth
On the record

the call

Manchester City 63 / draw 19 / AFC Bournemouth 18 to win

the status

Kicks off Sun 23 Aug · 14:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

MCI 63draw 19BOU 18

24 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Fulham v Chelsea
On the record

the call

Fulham 33 / draw 27 / Chelsea 40 to win

the status

Kicks off Mon 24 Aug · 20:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

FUL 33draw 27CHE 40

scoring

4

Settled

2

Exact scores

3

Right calls

n/a

Brier score

An honest note on the sample: 4 settled calls are not a track record. The model has picked the right result in 3 of them, including 2football verdicts that landed on the exact score. Satisfying, not conclusive. The record only means something as it grows, so it is scored the boring way and left to accumulate.

Once 5 scoreable football calls have settled, a Brier score appears in the tile above and stays: the mean squared error of the published probabilities, where 0 is clairvoyance, lower is better, and a 50/50 two-way call always scores 0.500. League calls are scored on the three-way (home, draw, away); knockout calls on the two-way. Every future game added to the registry joins this page automatically.

is the confidence earned

Calling the winner is one thing; being right about howsure to be is the harder test. A model that says 55% should land about 55% of the time. This groups every settled call by the model’s confidence in its pick and checks how often that pick won. With 4 gradeable calls it is a sketch, not a verdict; it earns its meaning as the ledger grows.

30–50%
50%
1/2 won
50–60%
100%
2/2 won
60–70%
no calls
70–85%
no calls
85%+
no calls

The faint line in each row marks the middle of the band, where a perfectly calibrated model would sit over the long run. Bands with no calls yet are waiting on results.

method

The probabilities graded here come from 100,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations per match, calibrated against the market and published models before kick-off. The full process (research, calibration, a bivariate Poisson engine, live sync, and these receipts) is on How it works. Each match page keeps its own sources and its own post-match reckoning.

The brief, the morning of the match

The model’s call, the verdict scoreline and the teamsheet check, one email per modelled match. No drip, no tips, unsubscribe any time. Want a profile too? Claim a username below, it is reserved the moment you sign up.

Grades and scores on this page are derived at build time from the games registry and the per-match data files, so they update when a result settles.