receipts

Every call, on the record

Every call the model makes is published before kick-off, timestamped, and left up whether it ages well or not. This page is the ledger: the headline probability, the verdict scoreline, and what actually happened, side by side. It is derived from the same data the match pages read, so nothing can be quietly rewritten.

settled calls

24 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Fulham v Chelsea
Right winner

the call

Fulham 33 / draw 27 / Chelsea 40 to win

the result

Fulham 2–3 Chelsea

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

FUL 33draw 27CHE 40

23 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa
Right winner

the call

Brighton & Hove Albion 39 / draw 27 / Aston Villa 34 to win

the result

Brighton & Hove Albion 4–0 Aston Villa

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

BHA 39draw 27AVL 34

23 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth
Right winner

the call

Manchester City 63 / draw 19 / AFC Bournemouth 18 to win

the result

Manchester City 2–1 AFC Bournemouth

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

MCI 63draw 19BOU 18

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur
Right winner

the call

Brentford 41 / draw 26 / Tottenham Hotspur 33 to win

the result

Brentford 3–0 Tottenham Hotspur

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

BRE 41draw 26TOT 33

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Everton v Crystal Palace
Right winner

the call

Everton 44 / draw 28 / Crystal Palace 28 to win

the result

Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

EVE 44draw 28CRY 28

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Ipswich Town v Sunderland
Wrong

the call

Ipswich Town 34 / draw 29 / Sunderland 37 to win

the result

Ipswich Town 2–1 Sunderland

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

IPS 34draw 29SUN 37

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Nottingham Forest v Leeds United
Wrong

the call

Nottingham Forest 42 / draw 28 / Leeds United 30 to win

the result

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds United

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

NFO 42draw 28LEE 30

22 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Hull City v Manchester United
Wrong

the call

Hull City 17 / draw 22 / Manchester United 61 to win

the result

Hull City 2–0 Manchester United

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

HUL 17draw 22MUN 61

21 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 1

Arsenal v Coventry City
Right winner

the call

Arsenal 78 / draw 15 / Coventry City 7 to win

the result

Arsenal 3–0 Coventry City

Full time. Result verified against ESPN on 23 September 2026.

ARS 78draw 15COV 7

26 Jul 2026 · Formula 1 · Round 11 of 23

Hungarian Grand Prix
Wrong

the call

Antonelli 32.8% to win the race

Verdict: Antonelli favoured, on the cleanest track to be favourite

the result

Norris converted pole into McLaren's first win of 2026, 15 seconds clear of Verstappen, after Piastri led early and retired with a gearbox failure. Antonelli was third and left for the break 50 points clear.

ANT 32.8the field 67.2

Sources: Formula 1, official 2026 Hungarian GP race result · Formula 1, race report: Norris beats Verstappen and Antonelli

15 Jul 2026 · FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-final

England v Argentina
Exact score

the call

Argentina 53.0% to reach the final

Verdict: Argentina 2–1 England

the result

England 1–2 Argentina

The model's verdict was Argentina 2–1, the exact score.

ENG 47.0ARG 53.0

The published verdict, Argentina 2–1 at 53.0%, was the exact score (a 10.5% single outcome). The miss: the model treated extra time as the danger zone when stoppage time was.

Sources: Al Jazeera, match report · ESPN, match report · Sofascore, Argentina keep scoring late

open calls

10 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Arsenal v Leeds United
On the record

the call

Arsenal 69 / draw 20 / Leeds United 11 to win

Verdict: Arsenal 1–0 Leeds United

the status

Kicks off Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

ARS 69draw 20LEE 11

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Arsenal: squad update, 2026-09-21 · Leeds United: squad update, 2026-09-03 · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Leeds United: Farke squad update, 8 October 2026 · Sports Mole: Arsenal injury update, updated 8 October 2026

10 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Aston Villa v Brentford
On the record

the call

Aston Villa 36 / draw 25 / Brentford 39 to win

Verdict: Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford

the status

Kicks off Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

AVL 36draw 25BRE 39

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Aston Villa: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Brentford: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Aston Villa squad reporting, 2026-10-08

10 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth
On the record

the call

Chelsea 53 / draw 22 / AFC Bournemouth 25 to win

Verdict: Chelsea 2–1 AFC Bournemouth

the status

Kicks off Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

CHE 53draw 22BOU 25

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Chelsea: squad update, 2026-09-16 · AFC Bournemouth: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · Matchup research · AFC Bournemouth squad reporting, 2026-10-08

10 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Ipswich Town v Fulham
On the record

the call

Ipswich Town 36 / draw 26 / Fulham 38 to win

Verdict: Ipswich Town 1–1 Fulham

the status

Kicks off Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

IPS 36draw 26FUL 38

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Ipswich Town: squad update, 2026-09-19 · Fulham: squad update, 2026-09-20 · Fulham: squad update, 2026-09-20 · Matchup research · Recent match report · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Ipswich Town squad reporting, 2026-10-08

10 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion
On the record

the call

Sunderland 35 / draw 26 / Brighton & Hove Albion 39 to win

Verdict: Sunderland 1–1 Brighton & Hove Albion

the status

Kicks off Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

SUN 35draw 26BHA 39

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Sunderland: squad update, 2026-09-19 · Brighton & Hove Albion: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Matchup research · Recent match report · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Sunderland squad reporting, 2026-10-08 · Brighton & Hove Albion squad reporting, 2026-10-09

10 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
On the record

the call

Manchester United 56 / draw 22 / Tottenham Hotspur 22 to win

Verdict: Manchester United 2–1 Tottenham Hotspur

the status

Kicks off Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

MUN 56draw 22TOT 22

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Manchester United: squad update, 2026-09-20 · Tottenham Hotspur: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Matchup research · Recent match report · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record

11 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
On the record

the call

Crystal Palace 37 / draw 27 / Nottingham Forest 36 to win

Verdict: Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest

the status

Kicks off Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

CRY 37draw 27NFO 36

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Crystal Palace: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Nottingham Forest: squad update, 2026-09-17 · Matchup research · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record

11 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Hull City v Everton
On the record

the call

Hull City 27 / draw 27 / Everton 46 to win

Verdict: Hull City 1–1 Everton

the status

Kicks off Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

HUL 27draw 27EVE 46

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Hull City: squad update, 2026-09-17 · Everton: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record

11 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Liverpool v Manchester City
On the record

the call

Liverpool 36 / draw 25 / Manchester City 39 to win

Verdict: Liverpool 1–1 Manchester City

the status

Kicks off Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

LIV 36draw 25MCI 39

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Liverpool: squad update, 2026-09-18 · Manchester City: squad update, 2026-09-20 · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record

12 Oct 2026 · Premier League · Matchweek 6

Coventry City v Newcastle United
On the record

the call

Coventry City 30 / draw 25 / Newcastle United 45 to win

Verdict: Coventry City 1–1 Newcastle United

the status

Kicks off Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 BST. The call stands until the whistle settles it.

COV 30draw 25NEW 45

Sources: Premier League fixture schedule · ESPN fixture and market snapshot · ESPN structured match data · Coventry City: squad update, 2026-09-22 · Coventry City: squad update, 2026-09-17 · Newcastle United: squad update, 2026-09-19 · Newcastle United: squad update, 2026-09-22 · Matchup research · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record · Recent league match record

scoring

14

Settled

2

Exact scores

9

Right calls

0.550

Brier score

An honest note on the sample: 14 settled calls are not a track record. The model has picked the right result in 9 of them, including 2football verdicts that landed on the exact score. Satisfying, not conclusive. The record only means something as it grows, so it is scored the boring way and left to accumulate.

Once 5 scoreable football calls have settled, a Brier score appears in the tile above and stays: the mean squared error of the published probabilities, where 0 is clairvoyance, lower is better, and a 50/50 two-way call always scores 0.500. League calls are scored on the three-way (home, draw, away); knockout calls on the two-way. Every future game added to the registry joins this page automatically.

is the confidence earned

Calling the winner is one thing; being right about howsure to be is the harder test. A model that says 55% should land about 55% of the time. This groups every settled call by the model’s confidence in its pick and checks how often that pick won. With 14 gradeable calls it is a sketch, not a verdict; it earns its meaning as the ledger grows.

30–50%
56%
5/9 won
50–60%
100%
2/2 won
60–70%
50%
1/2 won
70–85%
100%
1/1 won
85%+
no calls

The faint line in each row marks the middle of the band, where a perfectly calibrated model would sit over the long run. Bands with no calls yet are waiting on results.

method

The probabilities graded here come from 100,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations per match, calibrated against the market and published models before kick-off. The full process (research, calibration, a bivariate Poisson engine, live sync, and these receipts) is on How it works. Each match page keeps its own sources and its own post-match reckoning.

The brief, the morning of the match

The model’s call, the verdict scoreline and the teamsheet check, one email per modelled match. No drip, no tips, unsubscribe any time. Want a profile too? Claim a username below, it is reserved the moment you sign up.

Grades and scores on this page are derived at build time from the games registry and the per-match data files, so they update when a result settles.