receipts

Every call, on the record

Every call the model makes is published before kick-off, timestamped, and left up whether it ages well or not. This page is the ledger: the headline probability, the verdict scoreline, and what actually happened, side by side. It is derived from the same data the match pages read, so nothing can be quietly rewritten.

settled calls

15 Jul 2026 · FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-final

England v Argentina
Exact score

the call

Argentina 53.0% to reach the final

Verdict: Argentina 2–1 England

the result

England 1–2 Argentina

The model's verdict was Argentina 2–1, the exact score.

ENG 47.0ARG 53.0

The published verdict, Argentina 2–1 at 53.0%, was the exact score (an 11.3% single outcome). The miss: the model treated extra time as the danger zone when stoppage time was.

Sources: Al Jazeera, match report · ESPN, match report · Sofascore, Argentina keep scoring late

open calls

scoring

1

Settled

1

Exact score

1 of 1

Right winner

n/a

Brier score

An honest note on the sample: one settled call is an anecdote, not a track record. The semi landed on the exact score, which is satisfying and proves very little on its own. The record only means something as it grows, so it is scored the boring way and left to accumulate.

Once 5 calls have settled, a Brier score appears in the tile above and stays: the mean squared error of the published probabilities, where 0 is clairvoyance, lower is better, and a 50/50 two-way call always scores 0.500. League calls are scored on the three-way (home, draw, away); knockout calls on the two-way. Every future game added to the registry joins this page automatically.

method

The probabilities graded here come from 100,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations per match, calibrated against the market and published models before kick-off. The full process (research, calibration, a bivariate Poisson engine, live sync, and these receipts) is on How it works. Each match page keeps its own sources and its own post-match reckoning.

The brief, the morning of the match

The model’s call, the verdict scoreline, and the teamsheet check, in one email per modelled match. No drip, no tips, unsubscribe any time. Claim a username too and it carries over when profiles launch.

Grades and scores on this page are derived at build time from the games registry and the per-match data files, so they update when a result settles.