Premier League · Matchweek 10

Fulham v Newcastle United

Craven Cottage
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 GMT

Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 GMT

47%

FUL

25%

Draw

28%

NEW

Early forecast · published 4 November 2026 · 100,000 simulations

The early read

Fulham are 15th on 9 points after 9 matches and Newcastle United are 13th on 11. Fulham last drew 1–1 away to Aston Villa; Newcastle United last lost 0–1 at home to Everton.

Fulham 47%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 28%. The most frequent score in the reference run is 1–1, appearing in 11.0% of simulations. Even the leading scoreline leaves most outcomes elsewhere.

This is a market-calibrated starting point, not an independent edge over the market. Fitness and selection can still change before kick-off. The published run stays on the record; controls below let you test alternatives.

The last five rounds

Our reading: Fulham have 8 points from their last five league matches (5 scored, 4 conceded). Newcastle United have 6 (5 scored, 7 conceded). The market-calibrated model makes Fulham the most likely single outcome, which is a statement about the prices, not about either run of form.

Run the model

Change the assumptions, then run 100,000 matches. These are sensitivity tests, not claims about a player’s availability. Your run does not replace the published forecast.

46.7%

FUL

24.5%

Draw

28.8%

NEW

Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams score: 59.8%.

1–1 11.0%2–1 9.4%1–0 8.8%2–0 7.0%1–2 7.0%0–1 6.7%
100 sampled matches

Home score first. A small sample from the same assumptions; the headline uses all 100,000.

0–20–11–00–35–01–23–01–11–32–20–02–21–12–33–03–10–32–00–24–31–43–11–22–20–02–12–11–11–21–32–01–21–10–20–01–22–13–00–11–02–23–12–11–32–01–12–23–32–13–22–21–23–30–03–31–31–10–33–31–03–21–12–03–24–02–01–10–11–01–11–12–12–13–11–10–04–22–10–10–33–21–20–10–11–23–14–10–01–12–21–21–00–13–11–01–14–02–11–01–2

How much does the assumption matter?

ScenarioFULDrawNEW
Published baseline46.7%24.5%28.8%
FUL create less38.6%26.9%34.5%
FUL create more54.6%22.0%23.4%
NEW create less52.8%24.7%22.5%
NEW create more41.0%23.6%35.3%
Quieter match44.4%28.1%27.5%
Open match49.1%21.5%29.3%
Equal attacking rates37.3%25.5%37.1%

20,000 seeded runs per alternative; the baseline shows the published 100,000-run reference. Team-rate scenarios change the stated rate by 20%; the baseline keeps the published rates.

The working

Bivariate Poisson, 90 minutes only. Expected goals: 1.70 for Fulham, 1.30 for Newcastle United; shared component 0.08. Rates are fitted on a 0.05-goal grid to the margin-free three-way prices and over/under 2.5 goals. The shared component is a modelling assumption, not a measured stat. Seed 20261104. No player-specific adjustment is hidden in these rates.

This compact model cannot exactly reproduce every market probability. It does not simulate possession, individual shots or tactical sequences. The score distribution comes from the rates. Five league matches provide context, not enough evidence to estimate a new team-strength model.

Snapshot American prices, home / draw / away: 105 / 260 / 235. Total 2.5: over -160, under 125. Retrieved 4 November 2026; no quote timestamp was supplied.

Read the open-source model

The market comparison

DraftKings, via ESPN · 4 November snapshot

FUL45.8%

Draw26.1%

NEW28.1%

90-minute prices with the margin removed. Retrieval time is not the bookmaker’s quote time. A failed refresh keeps the last labelled observation. Prices are information, not betting advice.

View the source data

The last five rounds

Fulham

8 points · 5 scored · 4 conceded

  1. Manchester United (H)1–1
  2. Ipswich Town (A)1–2
  3. Hull City (H)1–0
  4. Coventry City (A)1–0
  5. Aston Villa (A)1–1

Oldest first. Scores shown from Fulham’s perspective.

Newcastle United

6 points · 5 scored · 7 conceded

  1. Hull City (H)2–1
  2. Coventry City (A)1–4
  3. Aston Villa (H)0–1
  4. Crystal Palace (A)2–0
  5. Everton (H)0–1

Oldest first. Scores shown from Newcastle United’s perspective.

Team news, dated

Each report describes the situation on its publication date. It does not confirm availability for the match.

Newcastle United · 2026-11-04

Premier Injuries (updated 4 November) lists Jacob Ramsey as suspended after a red card, returning 21 November. Lewis Miley (buttock) is at 25% and Tino Livramento (knee) is out. Matias Fernandez-Pardo (illness) is at 75%.

Read the dated source

Fulham · 2026-11-04

Premier Injuries (updated 4 November) lists Ryan Sessegnon as the only absentee, suspended after a red card, with a potential return date of 7 November. Whether that covers this match is not clear from the page.

Read the dated source

The last confirmed teams

Historical league teamsheets, not projected lineups for this match. Confirmed matchday XIs are not available yet.

Fulham

2026-10-31 · 4-2-3-1

  • Bernd Leno
  • Calvin Bassey
  • David Affengruber
  • Antonee Robinson
  • Timothy Castagne
  • Josh King
  • Shea Charles
  • Sander Berge
  • Gonzalo García
  • Alex Iwobi
  • Oscar Bobb
That day’s bench

Rodrigo Muniz, César Palacios, Kevin, Kenny Tete, Joachim Andersen, Benjamin Lecomte, Hugo Larsson, Tom Cairney, Manuel Ángel

View the match record

Newcastle United

2026-11-02 · 4-2-3-1

  • Lukás Hornícek
  • Dan Burn
  • Fabian Schär
  • Lewis Hall
  • Amar Dedic
  • Joe Willock
  • Nico González
  • Joelinton
  • William Osula
  • Harvey Barnes
  • Anthony Elanga
That day’s bench

Aladji Bamba, Malick Thiaw, Nick Pope, Bazoumana Touré, Sven Botman, Sean Steur, Jacob Ramsey, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Murphy

View the match record

Match-day bingo

Mark what you see. Saved on this device; locks when full time is confirmed.

Fulham

Newcastle United

Questions about the fixture

When is Fulham v Newcastle United?

Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 GMT, at Craven Cottage. This is Premier League matchweek 10.

What does the early model say?

Fulham 47%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 28%. These are 90-minute probabilities from 100,000 seeded simulations, calibrated to the market snapshot retrieved on 4 November 2026. They are not guarantees.

Are the lineups confirmed?

No. The teams shown are the last confirmed league starting XIs. They are historical context, not predictions for this match. Availability notes are dated and need checking before kick-off.

Sources and the record

Original research checked 4 November 2026. Team news updated 2026-11-04. No result has been recorded for this fixture. The first published probabilities above are the call to compare with the result.

Citation

Touchline model: Fulham 47% to win in Fulham v Newcastle United (100,000-run Monte Carlo). https://touchline.watch/premier-league/2026/11/fulham-v-newcastle-united

The data

The number as data (JSON) that a chart or an app can read. It never changes.

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Free to use with credit to touchline.watch (CC BY 4.0). Probabilities, not a prediction, and never betting advice.

Early preview, researched 4 November 2026. All Premier League fixtures and results. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.