Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
NewcastlevLiverpool
St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Sun 23 Aug · 16:30 BST · Sky Sports
Andoni Iraola's first competitive game as Liverpool manager, and Alexander Isak's first return to St James' Park since his £125m move, at the ground where Newcastle beat Liverpool in the 2025 Carabao Cup final.
100,000 simulations · Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
Each sliver is one simulated match from the run. Gold slivers are draws. 320 of the 100,000, in the order they finished.
part one, the brief
Read before kick-off.
the verdict
Liverpool by a goal (1–1 is the single likeliest exact score, and the draw is very much alive)
Isak against the club that sold him is the subplot the model keeps drawing, and it now falls on him alone: Hugo Ekitiké has ruptured an Achilles, and the Liverpool line no longer has Salah either. Barnes and Woltemade carry a Newcastle attack shorn of Gordon and now of Bruno Guimarães too, with nobody yet named as penalty taker. On an opening weekend, with two managers taking charge of their first competitive game, the goals arrive at both ends.
Newcastle 32 / draw 24 / Liverpool 44, in line with the market on 17 July. An open opener: the model gives over 2.5 goals a 60% chance and both teams to score 63%, which fits a fixture that has recently gone 3–3, 2–3 and 4–1. Read the number knowing what has happened since it was set. Liverpool have lost Ekitiké to a ruptured Achilles. Newcastle have lost Eddie Howe, who stepped down at the end of July, and sold their captain Bruno Guimarães to Arsenal for £75m, so this is Matthias Jaissle's first competitive game as well as Iraola's. Two first days widen the range more than they move the number, and this one is wider than the model was told.
the story so far
Newcastle United
- PLArsenal (A)0–1
- PLBrighton (H)3–1
- PLNott'm Forest (A)1–1
- PLWest Ham (H)3–1
- PLFulham (A) · final day0–2
Finished 12th, the lowest of Eddie Howe's time there, after a season of upheaval: Alexander Isak sold to Liverpool for £125m last September, then Anthony Gordon (Barcelona) and Sandro Tonali (Tottenham) cashed in this summer. Howe stepped down at the end of July and Bruno Guimarães followed him out to Arsenal for £75m; Matthias Jaissle takes his first competitive game here. Still fierce at home, leaky on the road.
Liverpool
- PLCrystal Palace (A)3–1
- PLManchester United (H)2–3
- PLChelsea (A)1–1
- PLAston Villa (H)2–4
- PLBrentford (A) · final day1–1
Fifth and trophyless a year after winning the title. One win in the last five cost Arne Slot his job; Andoni Iraola arrives from Bournemouth for his first competitive game, into a rebuild without Salah, Konaté or Robertson.
numbers that matter
team news, as it stands
Newcastle
gone this summer
Bruno Guimarães, the captain, sold to Arsenal for £75m on 8 August, having left the training camp to finalise it
Joelinton, the new vice-captain, out with a training injury. Jaissle, 15 August: 'he will be missing a couple of weeks as it looks right now'
Nick Pope has been made available for transfer and was left out of the friendlies; Tino Livramento (calf) and Lewis Miley (broken fibula) are both doubts
in and available
Eddie Howe stepped down at the end of July after almost five years, and Matthias Jaissle was appointed on 5 August on a four-year deal, with £9.5m of compensation paid to Al-Ahli
Amar Dedić in from Benfica on 18 August for a fee reported around £30m, reuniting with the coach who had him at Salzburg
Fabian Schär and goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen are both back and played against Strasbourg on 16 August, Jaouen saving two penalties in the shootout
the calls
Nobody has been named as penalty taker. Gordon took them last season and has gone to Barcelona; Bruno inherited them and has gone to Arsenal. The three who took them in the Strasbourg shootout all missed
Dan Burn was named captain on 15 August, with Joelinton vice-captain and Thiaw and Murphy completing the leadership group. Jaissle: 'Not many people understand what this club means to the city better than Dan'
Jaissle, after the Everton friendly: 'For sure, we cannot be at our peak. We have just been working for a couple of days together, and Liverpool is already next week'
Liverpool
gone this summer
Hugo Ekitiké out long-term with a ruptured Achilles tendon, which removes half the front pairing the model was calibrated around
Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni both long-term absentees, and Joe Gomez out with a muscle injury from the first pre-season game. Iraola: 'It will be impossible to have him for the start of the season'
Mohamed Salah, Ibrahima Konaté and Andy Robertson all left as free agents when their contracts expired on 30 June
in and available
Ronald Araújo in on a season-long loan from Barcelona, announced 10 August, with an option to buy reported at about £47m
Alexander Isak is fit and first choice, and scored against Monaco on 9 August. A full pre-season, unlike last year
Alexis Mac Allister is back in training but returned only in the last week, so he is short of sharpness
the calls
Who partners Van Dijk: Iraola has it as a straight fight between Jacquet and Araújo, both of whom played 45 minutes against Como
Penalty duty is still unresolved with Salah gone. The set-piece surveys name Isak and Szoboszlai as the candidates and both hedge it
Curtis Jones is a doubt with a hip complaint that has cost him nearly a fortnight
how the opener gets decided
- 1.
Isak against his old crowd
A year on from the £125m switch, Isak returns to St James' Park in red, and the model has him leading Liverpool's line. The reception will be hostile and the storyline will not leave him alone; whether it sharpens him or unsettles him is the afternoon's biggest single swing.
- 2.
Iraola's press, day one
Iraola built Bournemouth into one of the league's most aggressive pressing sides. Installing that on a new group in a first competitive game is rarely clean, and season openers reward whoever is further along. The July version of this page had Newcastle as the settled side; that argument has gone. Howe stepped down at the end of July and Jaissle has had about ten days with the players: 'For sure, we cannot be at our peak.' Neither side is further along, which is the honest reading.
- 3.
Liverpool's rebuilt spine
No Konaté, no Robertson, and Jacquet a new arrival next to Van Dijk: Liverpool's back line is less certain than in the title year. Newcastle's most direct route is at that fresh centre-back pairing, with Woltemade to occupy them and Barnes running the channels.
- 4.
Fortress St James', leaky road form aside
Newcastle's home record kept a poor season respectable, and an opening-day crowd is its own multiplier. The model's Newcastle-friendly scenario, where the ground lifts an early goal, is the one that tips a 44% Liverpool favourite toward a coin flip.
- 5.
Who takes the big moments
Gordon took Newcastle's penalties and their goals, and Bruno Guimarães inherited the spot-kicks. Both have now been sold, and nobody has been named to take them: Osula, Ramsey and Bamba all missed in the Strasbourg shootout on 16 August. Liverpool's duty is unresolved too, with Salah gone and the set-piece surveys hedging between Isak and Szoboszlai. In a game the model expects to be open, neither side has a clear answer to who decides it.
Newcastle’s projected XI
Liverpool’s projected XI
the benches
Newcastle's bench, reshaped
- TouréThe £43m summer signing, the intended answer on the left after Gordon
- SchärBack from a muscular problem and available again after the Strasbourg game
- JaouenBack from a back issue and saved two penalties against Strasbourg
- OsulaStriker depth behind Woltemade
A thinner squad than a year ago and thinner again since July: Isak, then Gordon and Tonali, then Bruno for £75m, with Joelinton injured and Pope told to find a club. Jaissle has spent about £90m on Dedić, Bamba, Horníček, Touré and Steur and says the business is not finished. This bench is about energy and width, not star power, which puts more on eleven players who have been coached together for ten days.
Liverpool's bench, Iraola's options
- AraújoOn loan from Barcelona since 10 August, and in a straight fight with Jacquet to start
- Mac AllisterBack in training only this week, so available rather than sharp
- KoumasThe other answer on the right wing if Ngumoha does not get it
- ChiesaThe forward who scored in the 2025 Carabao Cup final defeat here
Deep enough that the projected XI is only a best guess, and stretched in specific places: Ekitiké's Achilles, Bradley and Leoni long-term, Gomez a month away, Jones's hip. Iraola has said the squad 'definitely need to sign a winger' with two weeks of the window left. His first team selection is one of the genuine unknowns of the weekend.
part two, the toolkit
Keep open during the match.
the model, run it yourself
When the teams drop, when it’s 0–0 at the break, when Isak picks the ball up in the box: set the state below and watch the odds move. Once the match kicks off, the minute and score sync themselves from the live feed; the territory slider stays yours.
Defaults show the projected calls. Flip a toggle to price the alternatives, teamsheets land about an hour before kick-off.
Newcastle
How Newcastle set upThe organised, mid-block Newcastle that made St James' a fortress last season. Eddie Howe, who built it, stepped down at the end of July.
The one senior wide option left after Gordon's exit shoulders the load.
A full house, but the game settles into its rhythm.
Liverpool
Isak's receptionThe £125m returnee answers his old crowd, the story that writes itself.
The new manager's shape clicks despite it being game one.
The captain steadies a back line with a new centre-back beside him.
Match
The tempoThe recent script: 3–3, 2–3, 4–1. Goals at both ends.
fine-tune the base model →
20,000 simulations · New xG 1.45 · Liv xG 1.72
31.8%
Newcastle
24.3%
Draw
43.9%
Liverpool
The same run as texture: each sliver is one simulated match, in finishing order. Gold slivers are draws.
most likely scorelines
Newcastle goals down the side, Liverpool across the top. steel = Newcastle win · red = Liverpool win · gold = draw.
the likeliest scores
watch it run
how the model works →
Goals in 90 minutes are drawn from a bivariate Poisson: an independent draw per team plus a shared component (0.10, the standard club-football estimate), so open games swing both ways instead of being treated as independent. A league match, so a draw is a real outcome and there is no extra time or shootout.
The base rates are calibrated to the opening market: Newcastle 1.45 xG at home, Liverpool 1.72, which reproduces the bookmaker 3-way (Newcastle 32 / draw 24 / Liverpool 44) within a point and fits a fixture that keeps ending 3–3, 2–3, 4–1. In live mode only the remainder is simulated, with trailing teams opening up (+15–25%) and leaders game-managing (+5%).
The presets calibrate the same machine to different reads: the market, a Newcastle upset lifted by St James', a fast Liverpool start, and a goal-fest. The site sits on the market here rather than fading it, because both clubs arrive mid-rebuild and that widens the range of outcomes more than it moves the favourite. A model, not a promise.
the markets, live
What real money says, refreshed every minute until an hour past the whistle. The bar shows Newcastle / draw / Liverpool in 90 minutes.
90-minute moneyline, vig removed. Liverpool win or draw ≈ 67.7%
Polymarket has no per-match market for this fixture yet, only the season title market, so it is not charted here. A month out the 3-way prices are thin; they firm up and start moving in the days before kick-off, and refresh here every minute once they do.
what actually decides it
Liverpool’s win probability across the scenarios. Liverpool's win probability swings from the high 20s to the high 50s across the scenarios. Model and market agree on the shape: Liverpool ahead, the draw a real quarter of the time, Newcastle live at home. If St James' Park gets an early goal, it is anyone's afternoon.
match-day bingo
Tap a square when you see it happen. Five on one card and you know which way the afternoon is going. Marks are saved on your device for the whole match.
Newcastle are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Early St James' goal, The ground lifts them in front before 25′, the model's coin-flip scenario.
- Woltemade tests Jacquet, Newcastle's striker bullying the new centre-back into an early mistake.
- Barnes in behind, The channel run past a settling Liverpool defence, Newcastle's cleanest route.
- Isak silenced, The returning striker kept off the scoresheet and off his rhythm.
- A penalty, and someone takes it, Newcastle earn a spot-kick with no designated taker named all summer.
- Press disrupts Iraola, Liverpool's new shape misfiring on day one under pressure.
- Newcastle score first, A lead to defend in front of a full house.
- Set-piece goal, Schär or Botman rising in a crowded box.
- Clean sheet flirt, Pope keeping it tight past the hour, the model gives him an 18% shutout.
Liverpool are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Isak scores at old ground, The £125m man answering the boos, the story that writes itself.
- Isak scores at his old ground, With Ekitiké out on a ruptured Achilles, the line is his alone.
- Wirtz runs the game, The playmaker finding the pockets Newcastle's midfield leaves.
- Press wins it high, Iraola's pressing forcing a Newcastle error in their own third.
- 2+ Liverpool goals, The model expects an open game; Liverpool's edge is scoring.
- Van Dijk steadies the back, The rebuilt defence looking assured despite the new faces.
- Liverpool lead by half-time, Taking the crowd out of it early.
- Newcastle road frailty shows, The same softness that lost at Arsenal and Fulham.
- Late Liverpool goal, Superior bench depth telling in the final 20.