Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
ForestvLeeds
The City Ground, Nottingham
Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST · Not televised in the UK (3pm blackout)
Oliver Glasner's first competitive game as Nottingham Forest's fifth head coach in twelve months, against Daniel Farke's settled Leeds, in a fixture the home side won 3–1 both times last season.
100,000 simulations · Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
Each sliver is one simulated match from the run. Gold slivers are draws. 320 of the 100,000, in the order they finished.
part one, the brief
Read before kick-off.
the verdict
Forest, narrowly (1–1 is the single likeliest exact score, and the draw is a real 28%)
Morgan Gibbs-White is the model's man for the moment: 15 league goals last season and the senior ten in Glasner's 3-4-2-1. Penalties look like Chris Wood's now Elliot Anderson has gone, on the evidence of the last friendly, with Gibbs-White next in line. Leeds' route runs through Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who scored 14 in the league, chested one in against Forest in February and has three in two August friendlies, with Harry Wilson's delivery the new supply line.
Forest 42 / draw 28 / Leeds 30, a shade off the 18 July market toward Leeds. A modest-scoring opener by the model's read: over 2.5 goals lands 45% of the time and both teams score 51%. Forest have the better squad and the stronger new manager, but Glasner is their fifth boss in a year and the £116m midfield engine is gone; Farke's side arrive with a settled shape, which narrows the gap more than the table suggests.
the story so far
Nottingham Forest
- PLSunderland (A)5–0
- PLChelsea (A)3–1
- PLNewcastle (H)1–1
- PLMan United (A)2–3
- PLBournemouth (H) · final day1–1
Finished 16th on 44 points in a season of churn: four head coaches, a Europa League semi-final, and then a summer that sold Elliot Anderson to Manchester City for a British-record £116m and made Oliver Glasner the fifth boss in twelve months. The underlying team, from Sels to Gibbs-White, is better than 16th.
Leeds United
- PLWolves (H)3–0
- PLBurnley (H)3–1
- PLTottenham (A)1–1
- PLBrighton (H)1–0
- PLWest Ham (A) · final day0–3
Survived their first season back with room to spare: 14th on 47 points, safe with games in hand of the drop, plus an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley. Daniel Farke's November switch to a back three turned the season, and the core of that settled side returns intact, minus Pascal Struijk.
numbers that matter
team news, as it stands
Forest
gone this summer
Ryan Yates, the club captain, expected to miss with what Glasner called a minor physical problem
Nicolò Savona out with a knee injury, which reshapes the back three
Taiwo Awoniyi sold to Coventry on 17 August for a reported £9m, and given a guard of honour at half-time of the Brest friendly
in and available
Ousmane Diomande in from Sporting on 11 August for £34.3m fixed, and Steven Benda from Fulham on a free. Glasner: he needs 'a little bit of time to be fully fit' after a long post-World Cup break
Chris Wood and Callum Hudson-Odoi both featured against Brest on 16 August, Wood scoring the penalty
Gibbs-White, Murillo and Milenkovic all stayed. Glasner: 'It was clear after selling Elliot Anderson that none of our starters will leave the club'
the calls
The back three: the local reporting expects Diomande, Milenkovic and Murillo, which is also where the predicted XIs land
Penalties. Wood took and scored the last one, with Gibbs-White next in line, since Anderson's £116m exit took the designated taker
Glasner, 17 August: 'We have two or three additions in the pipeline'
Leeds
gone this summer
Gabriel Gudmundsson out with a suspected hamstring injury from the Liverpool friendly. Farke: 'it could easily be that he misses the first game, or perhaps the first two games'
Wilfried Gnonto (hamstring, against Manchester United on 12 August) and Ilia Gruev (knee) both unlikely
Lucas Perri out with a quadriceps injury, with a move to Torino held up by it
in and available
James Trafford in from Manchester City on 6 August for a club-record fee reported at £40m plus add-ons, and Nico Elvedi from Mönchengladbach today for an initial £6.8m
Harry Wilson signed on 8 July on a free from Fulham, a four-year deal, and is expected to make his competitive debut here
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is fit: two goals at Liverpool on 2 August and another against Leipzig on 8 August
the calls
Who plays left wing-back with Gudmundsson out. Farke: 'on the wing-back positions, it's not like we have too many options'
The three debutants: Trafford, Muharemovic and Wilson are all expected to start, with Elvedi 24 hours into the building
Joël Piroe and Sebastiaan Bornauw both left on loan today, so the bench is thinner than it was on Monday
how the opener gets decided
- 1.
Glasner, appointment number five
Forest sacked Vitor Pereira by email two minutes before an exit clause expired, then hired the man who won Crystal Palace an FA Cup and a Conference League in successive seasons. Glasner's Palace clicked almost immediately in 2024; if that repeats, Forest's 42% understates them. But no manager has yet survived a full year under this ownership, and day one is the first data point.
- 2.
The £116m hole in midfield
Elliot Anderson was Forest's tempo, their press resistance and their penalty taker, and he is now a Manchester City player. Xaver Schlager is an experienced, intelligent replacement but not a like-for-like one, and Ryan Yates is expected to miss, which thins the middle further. Ampadu and Stach against Schlager and Sangaré is the game's quiet contest, and the one Leeds will fancy most.
- 3.
Farke's continuity edge
Leeds have the league's most settled setup outside the top six: the same manager since 2023, the same back three since November, and an eight-match unbeaten run that sealed survival. That edge is real but narrower than it was. Three debutants are likely (Trafford, Muharemovic, Wilson), Gudmundsson's hamstring leaves a wing-back slot Farke says he cannot cover well, and Piroe and Bornauw both left on loan on the eve of the season.
- 4.
The front ends decide it
Gibbs-White outscored every player on either side last season with 15; Calvert-Lewin's 14 included a goal in each half of Leeds' season and one against Forest, and he has scored three times in August. The model made Forest's back three slightly the sturdier unit; since then it has lost Savona and gained Diomande for £34.3m, which is a fair trade it has not been told about.
- 5.
A 3pm Saturday, the old-fashioned way
No UK television, a full City Ground, and a fixture the home crowd won 3–1 in November before Elland Road returned the same score in February. Home advantage is most of Forest's edge in the model; if the ground gets an early goal, the afternoon runs downhill from there.
Forest’s projected XI
Leeds’ projected XI
the benches
Forest's bench, still deep
- WoodThe senior striker and designated penalty taker, back from five and a half months out, scored against Brest
- NdoyeThe £34m winger, direct running if the tens need reshaping
- HutchinsonWon the penalty that beat Leeds in November; a change of rhythm between the lines
- KalimuendoScored the winner against Leverkusen on 12 August
Even after the Anderson sale, this is a squad built for four competitions, and Diomande has now been added to it for £34.3m. Awoniyi has gone to Coventry and Yates is expected to miss, so Glasner's problem in the middle is thinner than it was; in the wide areas it is still choosing, not finding. These two meet again in the EFL Cup on 25 August.
Leeds' bench, the survival cast
- NmechaSix league goals off limited starts, including the opener at the City Ground in November, and a scorer against Leipzig
- OkaforThe other ten if Farke wants craft over Aaronson's pressing
- TanakaControl in midfield when the game needs calming down
- ElvediSigned today, so more a squad number than a substitute
Thinner than Forest's and thinner than it was on Monday: Piroe went to West Ham on loan and Bornauw to Hamburg on the morning of this refresh, with Gnonto, Gruev and Perri injured. What is left knows the system, which is the whole Leeds argument: a settled shape against one Glasner has been teaching for six weeks.
part two, the toolkit
Keep open during the match.
the model, run it yourself
When the teams drop, when it’s 0–0 at the break, when Gibbs-White stands over a free kick: set the state below and watch the odds move. Once the match kicks off, the minute and score sync themselves from the live feed; the territory slider stays yours.
Defaults show the projected calls. Flip a toggle to price the alternatives, teamsheets land about an hour before kick-off.
Forest
Glasner's new shapeThe 3-4-2-1 lands the way it did at Palace in 2024, quickly and coherently.
The free signing screens, recycles and lets Gibbs-White play higher.
A full house, but the game settles into its rhythm.
Leeds
The rebuilt back threeThe £34.1m debutant slots into Struijk's old berth without fuss.
The survival formula: a set block, then Okafor and Wilson breaking into space.
The 14-goal focal point pins the back three and brings the tens into it.
Match
The tempoThe model leans under 2.5 goals; opening days are often cagey.
fine-tune the base model →
20,000 simulations · NFO xG 1.35 · LEE xG 1.12
41.4%
Forest
28.7%
Draw
29.9%
Leeds
The same run as texture: each sliver is one simulated match, in finishing order. Gold slivers are draws.
most likely scorelines
Forest goals down the side, Leeds across the top. red = Forest win · blue = Leeds win · gold = draw.
the likeliest scores
watch it run
how the model works →
Goals in 90 minutes are drawn from a bivariate Poisson: an independent draw per team plus a shared component (0.10, the standard club-football estimate), so open games swing both ways instead of being treated as independent. A league match, so a draw is a real outcome and there is no extra time or shootout.
The base rates sit a shade off the opening market: Forest 1.35 xG at home, Leeds 1.12, which lands within a point of the bookmaker 3-way (Forest 42 / draw 28 / Leeds 30) and leans under on a 2.5-goal line, fitting two sides that finished 16th and 14th. In live mode only the remainder is simulated, with trailing teams opening up (+15–25%) and leaders game-managing (+5%).
The presets calibrate the same machine to different reads: the market, a Glasner side that clicks immediately, a settled Farke team beating the churn, and a cagey opening-day stalemate. The site shades half a point from Forest to Leeds because continuity tends to beat upheaval in week one, and Forest are on their fifth manager in a year. A model, not a promise.
the markets, live
What real money says, refreshed every minute until an hour past the whistle. The bar shows Forest / draw / Leeds in 90 minutes.
90-minute moneyline, vig removed. Leeds win or draw ≈ 57.5%
Polymarket has no per-match market for this fixture yet, only the season title market, so it is not charted here. The 3-way prices below are the live ones, polled every minute through kickoff week and for two hours after full time.
what actually decides it
Leeds’ win probability across the scenarios. Leeds' win probability runs from 21% to 42% across the scenarios. Model and market agree on the shape: Forest favourites at home, the draw alive at better than one in four, Leeds live if continuity beats churn. Whichever new-season story lands first, an early goal settles most of the argument.
match-day bingo
Tap a square when you see it happen. Five on one card and you know which way the afternoon is going. Marks are saved on your device for the whole match.
Forest are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Early City Ground goal, The ground in front inside 25′, the model's cleanest route to a home win.
- Gibbs-White between the lines, The 15-goal captain-in-waiting finding pockets behind Ampadu and Stach.
- Wing-backs pin Leeds, Williams and Aina camped high, Glasner's shape working as designed.
- Schlager screens the counters, The free signing snuffing out Okafor before Leeds can run.
- Igor Jesus in behind, Runs at Muharemovic on his Premier League debut.
- Set-piece threat, Milenkovic rising in a crowded box; Forest's tallest route to goal.
- Forest score first, A lead to protect with a 33% clean-sheet chance behind it.
- Calvert-Lewin quiet, Leeds' only double-figures scorer kept off the ball.
- New shape, no teething, The 3-4-2-1 looking drilled by half-time, Palace 2024 all over again.
Leeds are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Calvert-Lewin scores again, He got one against Forest in February; the model's likeliest Leeds goal.
- Wilson delivery counts, The free signing's set pieces or a cutback creating the first chance.
- Back three holds, Rodon, Bijol and Muharemovic keeping Forest to shots from distance.
- Okafor on the counter, Space behind Forest's high wing-backs, Leeds' fastest route.
- Forest teething shows, A fifth manager in a year looking like it: misplaced shape, early confusion.
- Bogle bombs on, He scored against Forest in February; the wing-back battle going Leeds' way.
- Leeds lead at half-time, Taking the City Ground out of it early.
- Muharemovic settles, The £34.1m debutant winning his duels against Igor Jesus.
- Point secured late, A draw is 28%; Farke's side would take it and defend it.