Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
EvertonvCrystal Palace
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST · Not televised in the UK (3pm blackout)
Pierre Sage's first competitive game as Crystal Palace manager, the Conference League winners opening on the road, at the ground where Everton begin their second season and David Moyes tries to end a seven-game winless run that soured a decent year.
100,000 simulations · Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
Each sliver is one simulated match from the run. Gold slivers are draws. 320 of the 100,000, in the order they finished.
part one, the brief
Read before kick-off.
the verdict
Everton, but barely (1–1 just edges 1–0 as the likeliest score, and nothing here is emphatic)
Mateta, who won the Conference League final in Leipzig with the only goal, is the best striker on the pitch and Palace's clearest route. Everton's answer is more collective: Beto's nine league goals led a side that scored just 47 all season, so the model leans on the new ground, Tarkowski's set-pieces, and a Palace back line missing Guéhi for the first time in five years.
Everton 44 / draw 28 / Palace 28, within a point of the market. A tight opener: the model gives over 2.5 goals a 46% chance and both teams to score 52%, tighter than the 2–1 and 2–2 these sides traded last season. Everton are favourites at home, but Pierre Sage's first match, a Palace squad back late from the World Cup, and Everton's own blunt run-in widen the range more than they move the number.
the story so far
Everton
- PLWest Ham (A)1–2
- PLMan City (H)3–3
- PLCrystal Palace (A)2–2
- PLSunderland (H)1–3
- PLTottenham (A) · final day0–1
Finished 13th on 49 points, their best total in five years, but won none of their last seven. The meanest defence in the bottom half (50 conceded, Pickford 11 clean sheets) carried an attack that managed 47 goals and lost Grealish to injury in January.
Crystal Palace
- PLEverton (H)2–2
- PLMan City (A)0–3
- PLBrentford (A)2–2
- PLArsenal (H) · champions' party1–2
- UECLRayo Vallecano (N) · final, Leipzig1–0
The strangest season in the club's history: 15th in the league, champions of Europe's third tier. Glasner left when his contract expired, four days after Mateta's goal beat Rayo Vallecano in Leipzig. Pierre Sage inherits the trophy, the Europa League, and a spine Chelsea keep circling.
numbers that matter
team news, as it stands
Everton
gone, or going
Idrissa Gana Gueye's second spell ended with his contract on 30 June
Jack Grealish's loan expired un-triggered: Everton want him back at a fraction of City's £50m option after his January foot injury
Reece Welch released
in and available
Hayden Hackney in from Middlesbrough (initial £16.5m) to run midfield
Tyrique George's loan made permanent from Chelsea; Merlin Röhl's too
Branthwaite fit again after missing most of 2025/26
the calls
Who leads the line: Beto's nine goals, Barry's promise, or Graham from the academy
Ndiaye or Dibling on the right once the World Cup players return
Every name is tentative five weeks out, refreshed nearer kick-off
Crystal Palace
gone, or going
Marc Guéhi already gone, sold to Manchester City in January for an initial £20m
Oliver Glasner left when his contract expired, four days after Leipzig
No summer sales confirmed yet, but Chelsea circle Lacroix and Wharton and Juventus watch Sarr
in and available
Óscar Mingueza in to reinforce the back line
Cheick Doucouré back in pre-season after missing all of last season
The World Cup contingent (Mateta, Sarr, Pino, Muñoz, Henderson) returns through late July
the calls
Sage's first XI is genuinely open: he ran two separate elevens in his first friendly
Keep Glasner's back three or reshape it; Doucouré's minutes managed early
Projected only, five weeks out
how the opener gets decided
- 1.
Sage's first day, in a hostile opener
Palace turned down the summer's easy story: Glasner walked when his contract expired, and Pierre Sage arrived from Lens two days after Leipzig. New-manager openers reward whoever is further along, and Moyes' Everton is the most settled thing on the pitch. The model's biggest single swing is whether Sage's shape holds for 90 minutes on day one.
- 2.
A back line without Guéhi, at last exposed
Palace sold their captain to Manchester City in January and finished the season on structure and habit. Now the rebuild is real: Lacroix is wanted by Chelsea, Canvot is 19, and Mingueza is a week into the shape. Everton's cleanest route is early pressure on that group before it settles, with Tarkowski and Branthwaite arriving on set-pieces at the other end.
- 3.
Where do Everton's goals come from
47 scored all season, none of the last seven won, Grealish's return unresolved. Beto's nine goals led the side and Hackney arrives to quicken the midfield, but the model's honest reading is that Everton's 44% rests more on what they prevent than what they create. An early goal changes the arithmetic completely.
- 4.
Mateta against the league's stingiest bottom-half defence
Sixteen goals, a Wembley shield, and the winner in Leipzig: Mateta arrives as the most proven striker on the pitch, against a defence that conceded 50 all season. If Palace's wing-backs pin Everton's full-backs and feed him early, the away third of the model (28%) grows fast.
- 5.
The blackout special
A 3pm Saturday kick-off with no UK broadcast, a modest expected total (about 2.5 goals), and two sides that met at 2–1 and 2–2 last season. The model makes 1–1 and 1–0 the likeliest scores; whoever leads first in a game this tight rarely gives it back. Radio on, bingo card open.
Everton’s projected XI
Crystal Palace’s projected XI
the benches
Everton's bench, options at last
- BarryThe alternative No 9 if Beto's spring form does not carry
- DiblingStarted pre-season on the right; pushes Ndiaye for the shirt
- McNeilSet-piece delivery and a left-side change of rhythm
- RöhlThe loan made permanent, midfield depth once fully fit
Deeper than a year ago, and that is before the Grealish question resolves either way. Moyes' bench is about controlled changes rather than chaos, which suits a game the model expects to stay within a goal.
Palace's bench, Sage's options
- DoucouréBack after a season out; the midfield anchor if his legs are ready
- NketiahThe change of profile from Mateta, sharp in pre-season
- EsseThe academy's next act, direct running from the left
- MinguezaThe new defender, cover across a reshaped back line
Sage ran two separate XIs in his first friendly, so the projected eleven is only a best guess. With a Europa League league phase starting in September, rotation is coming; the opener should still get the strongest available side.
part two, the toolkit
Keep open during the match.
the model, run it yourself
When the teams drop, when it’s 0–0 at the break, when Mateta picks the ball up in the box: set the state below and watch the odds move. Once the match kicks off, the minute and score sync themselves from the live feed; the territory slider stays yours.
Defaults show the projected calls. Flip a toggle to price the alternatives, teamsheets land about an hour before kick-off.
Everton
How Everton startThe organised Everton that kept 11 clean sheets and stayed in every game.
The senior pick returns from the World Cup and keeps the shirt.
A full house for the season's first kick, but the game finds its rhythm.
Palace
Sage's first XIThe new manager changes little on day one; the structure carries over.
The senior man steadies Canvot and the reshaped three holds.
The trophy is history; the winless league run-in is the truer form line.
Match
The tempoThe model's read: about 2.5 goals, margins of one.
fine-tune the base model →
20,000 simulations · Eve xG 1.42 · Cry xG 1.10
43.8%
Everton
28.2%
Draw
28.0%
Palace
The same run as texture: each sliver is one simulated match, in finishing order. Gold slivers are draws.
most likely scorelines
Everton goals down the side, Palace across the top. blue = Everton win · red = Palace win · gold = draw.
the likeliest scores
watch it run
how the model works →
Goals in 90 minutes are drawn from a bivariate Poisson: an independent draw per team plus a shared component (0.10, the standard club-football estimate), so open games swing both ways instead of being treated as independent. A league match, so a draw is a real outcome and there is no extra time or shootout.
The base rates are calibrated to the opening market: Everton 1.42 xG at home, Palace 1.10, which reproduces the bookmaker 3-way (Everton 44 / draw 28 / Palace 28) within a point and fits two sides whose last meetings finished 2–1 and 2–2. In live mode only the remainder is simulated, with trailing teams opening up (+15–25%) and leaders game-managing (+5%).
The presets calibrate the same machine to different reads: the market, a fast Everton start lifted by the new ground, Palace playing like the side that won in Leipzig, and a rerun of May’s open draw. The site sits on the market here rather than fading it, because a manager handover on one side and a blunt attack on the other widen the range of outcomes more than they move the favourite. A model, not a promise.
the markets, live
What real money says, refreshed every minute until an hour past the whistle. The bar shows Everton / draw / Palace in 90 minutes.
90-minute moneyline, vig removed. Everton win or draw ≈ 71.5%
Polymarket has no per-match market for this fixture yet, only the season title market, so it is not charted here. Five weeks out the 3-way prices are thin; they firm up and start moving in the days before kick-off, and refresh here every minute once they do.
what actually decides it
Everton’s win probability across the scenarios. Everton's win probability swings from the high 20s to the low 50s across the scenarios. Model and market agree on the shape: Everton ahead, the draw live well over a quarter of the time, Palace dangerous if the Leipzig version turns up. Whoever scores first in a 3pm blackout game tends to keep what they have.
match-day bingo
Tap a square when you see it happen. Five on one card and you know which way the afternoon is going. Marks are saved on your device for the whole match.
Everton are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Early Hill Dickinson goal, The new ground in front inside 25′, the model's home-comfort scenario.
- Beto beats the new line, Everton's No 9 at a back three missing Guéhi for the first time in five years.
- Tarkowski set-piece threat, He scored in this fixture in May; corners are Everton's cheapest chance.
- Hackney sets the tempo, The £16.5m debutant playing forward faster than Palace can reset.
- Dewsbury-Hall in the pockets, Finding space behind Wharton while Sage's midfield distances settle.
- Sage's shape misfires, Day-one teething from a manager two months into the job.
- Everton score first, A lead to protect, and no side protected leads better in the bottom half.
- Mateta kept quiet, The Leipzig matchwinner starved to half-chances.
- Pickford untroubled, The model gives Everton a 33% clean sheet; it looks that way early.
Palace are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Mateta gets his chance, The 16-goal striker on the end of something clean before half-time.
- Sarr runs in behind, The Conference League's top scorer stretching Tarkowski and Branthwaite.
- Wing-backs pin Everton, Muñoz and Mitchell high, turning Everton's full-backs into defenders.
- Wharton dictates, Passing through the press like the England midfielder Chelsea want.
- Pino between the lines, The Spaniard drifting off Mateta into the half-spaces Everton's pivot leaves.
- Leipzig swagger, The European champions playing like it, day one under Sage.
- Palace score first, Quieting a new ground that has not yet seen an opening-day win.
- Everton's blunt edge shows, 47 goals all last season; the same shortage, new season.
- Late Palace goal, Mateta equalised late in May's 2–2. The habit that rescues points.