Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
EvertonvCrystal Palace
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST · Not televised in the UK (3pm blackout)
Pierre Sage's first competitive game as Crystal Palace manager, the Conference League winners opening on the road, at the ground where Everton begin their second season and David Moyes tries to end a seven-game winless run that soured a decent year.
100,000 simulations · Premier League 2026/27 · Matchweek 1
Each sliver is one simulated match from the run. Gold slivers are draws. 320 of the 100,000, in the order they finished.
part one, the brief
Read before kick-off.
the verdict
Everton, but barely (1–1 just edges 1–0 as the likeliest score, and nothing here is emphatic)
Mateta, who won the Conference League final in Leipzig with the only goal, is the best striker on the pitch and Palace's clearest route, though he started the last friendly on the bench. Everton's answer is more collective: Thierno Barry has taken the shirt on pre-season form in a side that scored just 47 all season, so the model leans on the new ground, Tarkowski's set-pieces, and a Palace back three that has now lost Lacroix as well as Guéhi.
Everton 44 / draw 28 / Palace 28, within a point of the market. A tight opener: the model gives over 2.5 goals a 46% chance and both teams to score 52%, tighter than the 2–1 and 2–2 these sides traded last season. Everton are favourites at home, but Pierre Sage's first match, a Palace squad back late from the World Cup, and Everton's own blunt run-in widen the range more than they move the number.
the story so far
Everton
- PLWest Ham (A)1–2
- PLMan City (H)3–3
- PLCrystal Palace (A)2–2
- PLSunderland (H)1–3
- PLTottenham (A) · final day0–1
Finished 13th on 49 points, their best total in five years, but won none of their last seven. The meanest defence in the bottom half (50 conceded, Pickford 11 clean sheets) carried an attack that managed 47 goals and lost Grealish to injury in January.
Crystal Palace
- PLEverton (H)2–2
- PLMan City (A)0–3
- PLBrentford (A)2–2
- PLArsenal (H) · champions' party1–2
- UECLRayo Vallecano (N) · final, Leipzig1–0
The strangest season in the club's history: 15th in the league, champions of Europe's third tier. Glasner left when his contract expired, four days after Mateta's goal beat Rayo Vallecano in Leipzig. Pierre Sage inherits the trophy, the Europa League, and a spine Chelsea keep circling.
numbers that matter
team news, as it stands
Everton
gone, or going
James Garner out after groin surgery last month, which cost him effectively all of pre-season
Christian Nørgaard, the £7m signing from Arsenal on 5 August, is injured. He said so himself at a club event on Monday
Tim Iroegbunam a doubt after going off in the first half against Stuttgart on 8 August
in and available
Jarrad Branthwaite fit again after a lost season: he captained the side at Stuttgart, was rested against Newcastle by design, and played the Lille finale
Hayden Hackney is fit and in line for a Premier League debut. Moyes: 'it will take Hayden a little bit of time to adapt from the Championship'
Brennan Johnson in from Palace on 11 August in a swap that sent Dwight McNeil the other way
the calls
Everton start the season without a recognised right-back. Chief executive Angus Kinnear, 18 August: 'We won't have a right-back for Crystal Palace'
Thierno Barry leads the line on pre-season form, three goals and an assist, with Beto the alternative
Moyes, 17 August: 'We're still needing quite a few players to add to the squad'
Crystal Palace
gone, or going
Maxence Lacroix sold to Chelsea for £51m on 30 July, the summer's big departure from a back three that had just won the Conference League
Brennan Johnson gone to Everton in the McNeil swap
Marc Guéhi has been a Manchester City player since January
in and available
Five signings under Sage: Óscar Mingueza, Takehiro Tomiyasu on a free, Dwight McNeil, Anan Khalaili from Union Saint-Gilloise for a reported £21m, and Zavier Gozo from Real Salt Lake
Adam Wharton is available and started the final friendly at Freiburg; Cheick Doucouré is back after a season out and has been building through pre-season
Evann Guessand is here on a season-long loan from Aston Villa
the calls
Dean Henderson is a doubt. He went off holding his ankle at Freiburg on 15 August and Palace have issued no update, which puts Walter Benítez in the frame
Sage's shape: he named a back three at Freiburg, the same one Glasner left behind, with Canvot and Riad either side of Richards
Doucouré's minutes are being managed rather than trusted for ninety
how the opener gets decided
- 1.
Sage's first day, in a hostile opener
Palace turned down the summer's easy story: Glasner walked when his contract expired, and Pierre Sage arrived from Lens, where he had just won the Coupe de France. New-manager openers reward whoever is further along, and Moyes' Everton is the more settled of the two, injuries aside. The model's biggest single swing is whether Sage's shape holds for 90 minutes on day one.
- 2.
A back line without Guéhi, at last exposed
Palace sold their captain to Manchester City in January and finished the season on structure and habit. Now the rebuild is real: Lacroix went to Chelsea for £51m on 30 July, Canvot is 19, Riad takes the left of the three, and Sage has added five players. Everton's cleanest route is early pressure on that group before it settles, with Tarkowski and Branthwaite arriving on set-pieces at the other end.
- 3.
Where do Everton's goals come from
47 scored all season and none of the last seven won. Jack Grealish is still a Manchester City player: Everton's chief executive said so on 18 August, and watched him play in the Community Shield. Thierno Barry has taken the shirt on pre-season form and Hackney arrives to quicken the midfield, but the model's honest reading is that Everton's 44% rests more on what they prevent than what they create. An early goal changes the arithmetic completely.
- 4.
Mateta against the league's stingiest bottom-half defence
Sixteen goals, a Wembley shield, and the winner in Leipzig: Mateta is the most proven striker on the pitch, against a defence that conceded 50 all season. He was on the bench for the last friendly with Strand Larsen starting, so it may be a second-half question. If Palace's wing-backs pin a home side with no recognised right-back and feed whoever leads the line, the away third of the model (28%) grows fast.
- 5.
The blackout special
A 3pm Saturday kick-off with no UK broadcast, a modest expected total (about 2.5 goals), and two sides that met at 2–1 and 2–2 last season. The model makes 1–1 and 1–0 the likeliest scores; whoever leads first in a game this tight rarely gives it back. Radio on, bingo card open.
Everton’s projected XI
Crystal Palace’s projected XI
the benches
Everton's bench, options at last
- BetoThe alternative No 9 if Barry's pre-season form does not carry
- JohnsonIn from Palace on 11 August, straight into a game against his old club
- GeorgeThe loan made permanent, and a scorer against Newcastle
- RöhlThe other loan made permanent, midfield depth
Deeper than a year ago in attack and thinner than it wants to be behind: Garner and Nørgaard are injured, and Moyes says he still needs 'quite a few players'. Brennan Johnson faces the club he left eight days ago. The bench is about controlled changes rather than chaos, which suits a game the model expects to stay within a goal.
Palace's bench, Sage's options
- DoucouréBack after a season out; being managed rather than trusted for ninety
- MatetaAmong the substitutes at Freiburg, the heavier reference point
- NketiahReturned from the strain that cost him the run-in
- BenítezThe goalkeeper if Henderson's ankle does not clear
Sage named a strong side at Freiburg and lost 3-0 over 120 minutes, 2-0 at ninety, so the bench is where the five new signings sit for now. With a Europa League league phase from mid-September, rotation is coming; the opener should still get the strongest available side.
part two, the toolkit
Keep open during the match.
the model, run it yourself
When the teams drop, when it’s 0–0 at the break, when Mateta picks the ball up in the box: set the state below and watch the odds move. Once the match kicks off, the minute and score sync themselves from the live feed; the territory slider stays yours.
Defaults show the projected calls. Flip a toggle to price the alternatives, teamsheets land about an hour before kick-off.
Everton
How Everton startThe organised Everton that kept 11 clean sheets and stayed in every game.
The senior pick returns from the World Cup and keeps the shirt.
A full house for the season's first kick, but the game finds its rhythm.
Palace
Sage's first XIThe new manager changes little on day one; the structure carries over.
The senior man steadies Canvot and the reshaped three holds.
The trophy is history; the winless league run-in is the truer form line.
Match
The tempoThe model's read: about 2.5 goals, margins of one.
fine-tune the base model →
20,000 simulations · Eve xG 1.42 · Cry xG 1.10
43.8%
Everton
28.2%
Draw
28.0%
Palace
The same run as texture: each sliver is one simulated match, in finishing order. Gold slivers are draws.
most likely scorelines
Everton goals down the side, Palace across the top. blue = Everton win · red = Palace win · gold = draw.
the likeliest scores
watch it run
how the model works →
Goals in 90 minutes are drawn from a bivariate Poisson: an independent draw per team plus a shared component (0.10, the standard club-football estimate), so open games swing both ways instead of being treated as independent. A league match, so a draw is a real outcome and there is no extra time or shootout.
The base rates are calibrated to the opening market: Everton 1.42 xG at home, Palace 1.10, which reproduces the bookmaker 3-way (Everton 44 / draw 28 / Palace 28) within a point and fits two sides whose last meetings finished 2–1 and 2–2. In live mode only the remainder is simulated, with trailing teams opening up (+15–25%) and leaders game-managing (+5%).
The presets calibrate the same machine to different reads: the market, a fast Everton start lifted by the new ground, Palace playing like the side that won in Leipzig, and a rerun of May’s open draw. The site sits on the market here rather than fading it, because a manager handover on one side and a blunt attack on the other widen the range of outcomes more than they move the favourite. A model, not a promise.
the markets, live
What real money says, refreshed every minute until an hour past the whistle. The bar shows Everton / draw / Palace in 90 minutes.
90-minute moneyline, vig removed. Everton win or draw ≈ 71.5%
Polymarket has no per-match market for this fixture yet, only the season title market, so it is not charted here. The 3-way prices below are the live ones, polled every minute through kickoff week and for two hours after full time.
what actually decides it
Everton’s win probability across the scenarios. Everton's win probability swings from the high 20s to the low 50s across the scenarios. Model and market agree on the shape: Everton ahead, the draw live well over a quarter of the time, Palace dangerous if the Leipzig version turns up. Whoever scores first in a 3pm blackout game tends to keep what they have.
match-day bingo
Tap a square when you see it happen. Five on one card and you know which way the afternoon is going. Marks are saved on your device for the whole match.
Everton are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Early Hill Dickinson goal, The new ground in front inside 25′, the model's home-comfort scenario.
- Barry beats the new line, Everton's No 9 at a back three that has lost Lacroix as well as Guéhi.
- Tarkowski set-piece threat, He scored in this fixture in May; corners are Everton's cheapest chance.
- Hackney sets the tempo, The £16.5m debutant playing forward faster than Palace can reset.
- Dewsbury-Hall in the pockets, Finding space behind Wharton while Sage's midfield distances settle.
- Sage's shape misfires, Day-one teething from a manager two months into the job.
- Everton score first, A lead to protect, and no side protected leads better in the bottom half.
- Mateta kept quiet, The Leipzig matchwinner starved to half-chances.
- Pickford untroubled, The model gives Everton a 33% clean sheet; it looks that way early.
Palace are on track if…
0/9what each square means →
- Mateta gets his chance, The 16-goal striker on the end of something clean before half-time.
- Sarr runs in behind, The Conference League's top scorer stretching Tarkowski and Branthwaite.
- Wing-backs pin Everton, Muñoz and Mitchell high, turning Everton's full-backs into defenders.
- Wharton dictates, Passing through the press like the England midfielder Chelsea want.
- Pino between the lines, The Spaniard drifting off Mateta into the half-spaces Everton's pivot leaves.
- Leipzig swagger, The European champions playing like it, day one under Sage.
- Palace score first, Quieting a new ground that has not yet seen an opening-day win.
- Everton's blunt edge shows, 47 goals all last season; the same shortage, new season.
- Late Palace goal, Mateta equalised late in May's 2–2. The habit that rescues points.