Group C14 played
| Position | Nation | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | −15 | 0 |
San Marino at Euro 2028
San Marino's route to Euro 2028
San Marino enter qualifying with 53 other nations for 24 places. Here is how often the model gets them there, and by which door, with where they stand in the Nations League.
The model’s view
100,000 simulated qualifying campaigns, a fresh draw in each, seed 20280609. The same run the simulator and the host pages start from.
- On merit
- <1%Group winner or one of the eight best runners-up
- Play-offs
- 0%Through the March play-offs
- Misses the tournament
- 100%Out of the tournament
How to read it
San Marino are seeded 54th of 54 in the simulator, which puts them in pot 5 of 5 in its draw. Their strength is −1.60 on a log-goals scale. That is a hand-set, tiered prior, not a published rating, and the real pots are confirmed with the draw.
Across 100,000 campaigns, San Marino win their group in under 1%, reach the finals directly in under 1% and get there through the play-offs in under 1%. They miss the tournament in over 99%.
In the Nations League
San Marino are 4th in Group C1 on 0 points from 4 matches, as of 4 November 2026. All 14 groups.
Their Nations League group
Close to them on the prior
Common questions
- Will San Marino qualify for Euro 2028?
- On the simulator's default prior, San Marino reach the finals in under 1% of 100,000 simulated qualifying campaigns: under 1% on merit and under 1% through the play-offs. The strengths are a hand-set prior, not a published rating. The real groups are drawn on 6 December 2026.
- How does Euro 2028 qualifying work?
- 54 nations are drawn into 12 groups, six of five and six of four, and play home and away. The 12 group winners and the eight best runners-up go through directly. The other four places are decided by the play-offs and the reserved places for hosts who miss out.
- Where are San Marino in the Nations League?
- San Marino are 4th in Group C1 (League C) on 0 points from 4 matches, as of 4 November 2026. Their group rivals are Albania, Belarus, Finland.
Probabilities come from the Touchline qualifying simulator’s reference run over all 54 nations, on an editable prior. The play-off field is a simplification: the leftover runners-up plus the strongest nations still out, standing in for the Nations League route. Nations League positions are a dated snapshot from ESPN. Analysis to argue with, not betting advice.